New Zealand will get fewer visitors from Britain because of the lower pound and there is little this country can do about it, Visit Britain chairman Christopher Rodrigues believes.
Rodrigues, who visited New Zealand last week to try to drum up visitors for his home country, says forecasts by Tourism
New Zealand are about right.
New Zealand's industry marketing body estimated visitors from the United Kingdom - New Zealand's second largest source market - could fall by up to 20 per cent in the next three months.
"It's probably fair. What is on your side is that flights are equally cheap in our direction."
But the weakness of the pound meant accommodation and activities in New Zealand were now more expensive compared with a year ago.
"What works against New Zealand is while flights are cheap you don't come here for a short time. The cost per day feels high because of the currency and you are coming for two to three weeks so that is a big hole.
"It is just a difficult market for long-haul travel from the UK."
Rodrigues believed the fall-off in global tourism was unlikely to get worse. "I don't think it is going to get materially worse than the first half of this year."
He said fear of job loss was a concern but once companies had made the job cuts people would feel more relaxed about spending again.
"As soon as people get the sense that the company has done what it needs to do, then consumer sentiment will pick up."
The World Tourism Council estimated global tourism would be down more than 3 per cent this year.
Rodrigues said compared with other industries, where the fall was in double digits, tourism was doing well.
But yield erosion in hotel room rates was having a spill-on effect.
"What we are seeing is no capital investment. Very few developments that have not broken ground are being financed. Financing new builds is tough."
Airplanes were also being moth-balled. Around 600 planes globally had been grounded - the equivalent of one global carrier.
He said the developed world perceived travel as a right, not a privilege, while the developing world saw it as a rite of passage. He expected the next 18 months to show how resilient the tourism industry was.
