Fewer UK fans expected for RWC 2011

British Lions fans enjoying the rugby in New Zealand during the 2005 tour. Photo / Brett Phibbs

Strains of Swing Low, Sweet Chariot could be heard in venues across the country when Lions fans last followed their team to our shores in 2005.

More than 20,000 fans packed out venues across New Zealand to watch their team suffer a 3-0 whitewash at the hands of the All Blacks.

But what will become of the English, Irish, Scottish and Welsh rugby fan when the seventh Rugby World Cup kicks off in New Zealand next year?

With the exchange rate recently at its strongest against the pound in 30 years, expectations are some fans will opt out of spending their precious pennies abroad, in favour of catching the action at home.

Estimates from the Ministry of Tourism are that just 13,000 English, 5280 Irish, 2670 Scottish and 3720 Welsh supporters will travel to New Zealand for next year's Rugby World Cup, despite it being touted as one of the world's biggest sporting events.

A small percentage of these figures were made up of players, referees and team management.

Of the 85,000 people expected in New Zealand during the cup, about 10,000 would be players and management, according to preliminary forecasts from the Ministry.

Ministry of Tourism research manager Bruce Bassett said the global economic downturn was likely to affect interest from the northern hemisphere initially.

Expectations were low for English and Irish rugby supporters in particular while French fans, buoyed by their team's recent jump to fourth in the world rankings, were showing a lot of interest in the cup.

France, who hosted the 2007 cup, are in the same pool as the All Blacks, and have a strong affinity with New Zealand as a rugby playing nation, Bassett said.

Close to 7000 French are expected to attend the cup, while South African supporters are expected to boost numbers by almost 11,000, the research showed.

While the cost of travel from South Africa was high, there were many expat South Africans living in Australia who were keen to cross the ditch to see their team retain the cup.

Meanwhile, Australians are expected to make up about 21,300 extra people in New Zealand during the cup. They would treat New Zealand like a domestic destination, travelling here at weekends, or flying in and out on the same day.

The forecast was based on the number of people likely to come to the cup, who supported a particular team, and these people could be residing anywhere in the world, Bassett said.

The forecasting process drew on analysis of previous events and input from those closest to the event, both in New Zealand and in the origin markets, he added.

Members of the ex-pat Kiwi community are also widely being tipped to return home in time for the cup, with forecasts suggesting they could boost numbers by about 12,000.

Some expats would bring forward their traditional Christmas visit to coincide with the cup, without placing extra stress on hotels and motels, forecasts suggest.

While arrivals into New Zealand would be much higher than in the absence of the event, they would still sit well below levels experienced during peak tourism season in New Zealand, the report said.

About 85,000 visitors are expected to arrive in the country during the cup, against close to 200,000 people during the peak season of February.

Tickets to rugby's showpiece tournament open in two weeks, marking 500 days until the tournament begins.