Today, Russia probably won't seek any aid and the IMF is unlikely to approve any bailout, according to former fund officials and advisers to Russia's government. The question of helping the nation could emerge if Putin is unable to stabilise the world's eighth-largest economy and market turmoil spreads.
"In the 1990s, the international community and particularly the United States had mobilised IMF support," said Domenico Lombardi, a former IMF board official. "Now there are sanctions with the precise purpose of undermining confidence in Russia's ability to integrate with the world economy. The two crises are extremely different."
The ruble rebounded by about 10 per cent yesterday after the Finance Ministry announced that it bought rubles, which have lost 47 per cent this year against the dollar. That came a day after the central bank raised its key interest rate to 17 per cent from 10.5 per cent to stem the rout.
Analysts differ on whether Russia, in its current state, would even qualify for IMF aid.
"The IMF would provide aid only to countries that have a balance of payments issue, and Russia doesn't," said Lubomir Mitov, chief economist for emerging Europe at the Institute of International Finance in Washington.
Russia asking for IMF help is "off the table".
"Russia's not the same country that it used to be in 98, 99", when foreign-exchange reserves were as low as US$11 billion, compared with about US$374 billion now.
The level of reserves has dropped from US$470 billion at the end of 2013, as Russia reduces its stockpile to defend the currency.
Russia is in a "classic emerging-country crisis, almost of a textbook variety", said Alessandro Leipold, a former IMF official. "A currency collapse and capital flight caused primarily by a commodity price shock."
In such cases, "recourse to the IMF, and a likely debt restructuring, would be the archetypical response".
The possibility of Russia requesting a rescue package "any time soon" is zero, Leipold said.
"Putin will not ask, and nobody will prod him to do so."
Simonetta Nardin, a spokeswoman for the Washington-based IMF, said the fund "is closely monitoring developments in the foreign-exchange markets in Russia".
She declined to elaborate.
White House spokesman Josh Earnest said on Wednesday that US President Barack Obama will sign legislation passed by Congress last week that authorises - but doesn't require - the US to put more sanctions on Russia's energy industry and provide arms and other lethal aid to Ukraine's government.
The spillovers from Russia's crisis to the US are likely to be small, Federal Reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen said yesterday.
Russia does "consult substantively and positively with the IMF, but Russia does not need the money", and any approach to the fund would face rejection, said Anders Aslund, a former economic adviser to Russia and Ukraine.
"The West has a majority in the IMF, the US alone has a veto, so Russia cannot get any money from the IMF."
Putin is scheduled to address the nation at his annual press conference today, as Russians rush to convert their money into dollars and buy durable goods amid concerns over hyperinflation and possible government currency controls. Yet any approach to the IMF for aid would be unexpected.
Asking the IMF for help is "completely impossible - it will never happen", said Clifford Gaddy, an economist specialising in Russia at the Brookings Institution in Washington, who was an adviser to the Russian Finance Ministry in the 1990s.
Gaddy said: "No more debt enslavement" has been a fundamental tenet of Putin's rule and foreign policy.
Q&A: Financial crisis
What is happening?
Russia's currency has lost half its value and investors are pulling out billions of dollars.
Why?
The country annexed Crimea, prompting the US and EU to impose sanctions. The price of its biggest export, oil, has plunged.
Will it ask for help?
The US has a veto and Russia has enough reserves, US$374 billion ($486 billion), not to qualify for an IMF bailout.
What happens next?
Putin is to address the nation today as Russians rush to convert money into dollars and buy durable goods.
- Bloomberg
