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Many shoppers appear to be leaving it to the last minute or hanging on to their money in the final run-up to Christmas.
Some basic costs have risen significantly in the past year and consumer spending was down in the latest figures released by Statistics NZ last week.
ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley said this year's Christmas spend is likely to be lower than last year's due to "death by a thousand paper cuts" with food, fuel and housing costs increasing.
"The housing market, now that it's slowing, the perception is there. We're not quite as gung-ho as we were and prepared to spend on the back of that," Mr Tuffley said.
He said last year consumers went on a spending binge around Christmas after earlier being "clobbered" by petrol prices. But with more and more people rolling off their fixed term mortgages and refinancing under higher mortgage rates, spending is slowing down.
However, Retailers Association chief executive John Albertson said the rising costs have been off-set by a strong labour market and the Government's Working for Families package.
"The first couple of weeks were, I wouldn't say slow, but not quite up to expectations. It's starting to pick up now," Mr Albertson said.
He said anecdotally he has heard that the last weekend was a strong one.
"My suspicion is that a lot of people are finishing up on Friday and giving themselves a Saturday, Sunday, Monday before Christmas day and leaving it to the last minute," Mr Albertson said.
A poll last week on nzherald.co.nz showed 53 per cent of readers planned to spend less than last year while 35 per cent said they would spend about the same as 12 months ago and 12 per cent were planning to spend more.
Director at Christchurch's Ballantynes Richard Ballantyne said December has started off well but he has noticed that the Christmas rush is starting later and later in the year.
Mr Ballantyne said Cantabrians could be better organised.
Mr Albertson said despite people planning on spending less, when they find themselves in the shops, they just want to buy good gifts.
He said the Retailers Association is projecting a five per cent increase in consumer spending this Christmas.
Statistics NZ's latest retail trade survey figures - for October - showed sales dropped by 0.7 per cent or $40 million between September and October.
Fifteen of the 24 main industries recorded sales decreases.
There were reports earlier this year that retailers were discounting prices ahead of Christmas, anticipating a slow season.
The summer holidays are vitally important to shops with The Warehouse, for example, taking 40 per cent of its sales revenue in December and January.
But one area of New Zealand will be having a merry Christmas and that's the dairy farmers who have just received a record payout.
