Kiwis get credit cards out in October, but retail challenge remains

Electronic card transaction data shows spending is returning to pre-lockdown levels. Photo / Supplied

Kiwis got their credit cards out in October, spending $645 million (9.5 per cent) more than last month, Stats NZ said today.

The increase indicated spending is starting to return to levels seen before the country went into lockdown in the second half of August, business performance manager Ricky Ho said.

But the surge has not yet quite lifted spending back to levels seen prior to the Delta outbreak.

"The recovery in spending over the past month will be welcome news for many retailers, pointing to firmness in spending appetites as we head into the Black Friday/Christmas shopping season," said Westpac senior economist Satish Ranchhod.

"Many retailers will also have welcomed indications from the Government that activity restrictions in Auckland are likely to ease later this month."

But he warned that many businesses were still struggling with significant reductions in demand due to social distancing requirements.

Nationwide sales among hospitality businesses were still running around 30 per cent below pre-Delta levels, Ranchhod said.

While the easing restrictions for Auckland and some surrounding areas were the likely catalysts for the rise, spending levels remained well below pre-delta outbreak levels, said ASB senior economist Mark Smith.

The November shift down in alert levels restrictions for Auckland should deliver a further lift, with rising consumer spending expected to fuel a Q4 rebound in economic activity, he said.

"This rebound in activity will be tempered by still remaining restrictions (particularly for hospitality), stock shortages, rising interest rates and higher consumer prices," he said.

"It won't be until 2022 that consumer spending moves above mid-2021 levels. This year started brightly, but 2021 is set to go down as a very challenging year for retail."

In October, the durables spending category was up $149m (11.5 per cent) and drove the increase in total card spending, StatsNZ said.

This category includes many non-essential items such as furniture, hardware, and appliances.

Groceries and liquor (consumables) was the only spending category that saw a decrease in card spending over the month, down $6m (0.2 per cent) from September 2021.

"The slight dip in grocery shopping could be due to New Zealanders now having more options to eat out or have takeaways, instead of purchasing food from supermarkets," said Stats NZ's Ho.

On annual basis, total electronic card spending was $7.5 billion, down 9.2 per cent ($0.8b) from the same time last year.

The October bump did does not mean a return to the good days of old for retail, just yet, said ASB's Smith.

"Absent a further breakthrough in its treatment, Covid-19 will require some forms of restrictions and changes to operations for retailers, particularly customer-facing operations, with significant challenges to many hospitality operations."