Talkback: Learning to live without Holmes

It's reality TV. The public have voted and the head of Paul Holmes has rolled.

But while the most colourful character on the island has predictably had his torch snuffed out on Survivor: Prime Television, the show must go on. For Prime, at least.

The cancellation will, in the first instance, be a financial relief. It not only removes a multi-million-dollar production burden, but the current affairs show's poor ratings suggest there's only one direction for the channel's prime-time advertising revenue left to go - up.

Sure, a 30-second spot on Holmes cost $1980 when it launched in the 7pm slot in February, significantly more than the $1100 commanded for The Price is Right when it occupied the time last year. But a Holmes spot had already more than halved in value to $800 when the show shifted to 6pm in June and has stayed at three figures since.

Far outweighing that consideration is the fact that the channel must now find some way of overcoming the major blow to its strategy.

When Prime chief executive Chris Taylor snatched Holmes from TVNZ, he was making a public tilt at the lucrative adult audience his channel lacks.

Internationally, it has proved hard to shift audiences, but Taylor took a gamble on the fact that NZ television viewers sometimes buck global trends. He was wrong.

I don't subscribe to the view Holmes was a total disaster for Prime. Taylor's "look at me" audacity did force advertisers to take notice of the fledgling channel.

In an interview on this page in June, Taylor said the publicity surrounding the move had driven an increase in Prime's share of revenue to more than 4.7 per cent in the first quarter, from 3.5 per cent, which added as much as $9 million to the channel's coffers.

In May, the boost to Prime's profile even led to talk that Taylor could be a successor to the top job at Australia's Channel Nine.

Rewards are far less likely to be forthcoming in the light of the outcome of the Holmes foray. But while Taylor's appetite for risk may have diminished, to stop taking chances now would be a fatal mistake.

Experts believe Prime has to double its share of prime-time viewers to at least 10 per cent to be a real force in New Zealand.

Dr Who - about which Prime released a ratings brag just three days before its admission on Holmes - is a good example of the way it may now go forward.

Armed with its Nine Network alliance, Prime should be able to strong-arm international content from TVNZ and Canwest.

What the Holmes failure may have stymied is Taylor's bid to build a local face for Prime. Its 5.30pm news still has a regurgitated Australian flavour, and without the need to build into Holmes, there may be less impetus to change that.

Prime must also tread carefully with advertisers. Mediacom's Michael Carney warns of monthly declines in peak-time viewership over the past five months combined with a 20 per cent advertising rate increase for the fourth quarter.

Without a successful Paul Holmes show, Taylor no longer has a clear path ahead. But there's still every opportunity for Prime to negotiate its way to a bigger audience share. It just won't be with the one king-hit Taylor had hoped for.