Market Watch: Our 2018 predictions - did we get it right?

A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. Photo / AP

It has been a crazy year for global markets. We've seen record highs, corrections, bear markets oil price spikes and crashes.

The only real consistency has been the volatility - which makes looking back at predictions from the start of the year all the more fraught.

Undeterred Market Watch, with Pie Funds head of research Mark Devcich, has run the ruler over the big calls we made.

Here's what we got right, what we got wrong and why:

1) Oil hits US$80 a barrel: It sure did. Brent crude soared right through that mark to peak at about US$86 on October 3.

2) Wage Inflation returns: After a long period of deflation and low growth wage inflation in the US picked up this year and has risen above four per cent. In New Zealand it has been more subdued but is above two percent and expected to pick up further.

3) Rate rises: As widely predicted the US Federal Reserve continued to hike interest rates in 2018 - with enormous fallout for equity markets. While a fourth hike for the year - due next week - looks certain the questions around how many hikes it makes next year is central to the equities outlook.

4) Dogs of the Dow: These are the 10 highest dividend yielding stocks on the Dow Jones Index. The prediction was that they would outperform in 2018. It didn't come off, says Devcich. Maybe with risky growth stocks under pressure 2019 will be their year.

5) More volatility: This one came through with a vengeance. There were two big spikes in volatility as measured by the VIX Index. February saw it hit highs for the year but October was also very dramatic and things haven't settled down yet.

6) Clean Energy takes off: This should have happened - demand keeps rising. But a policy change in China reducing subsidies for solar use meant there was an oversupply, pushing prices down.

7) Retail stocks shine: This one didn't really happen either. It looked like traditional retailers had been oversold heading into 2018. Some niche players had done quite well, Devcich said. But many of the big department store had struggled and may well be in structural decline.

8) Amazon expands: Market Watch picked Amazon to diversify in 2018. It hasn't as much as expected, although it did move into healthcare and it still dominates retail.

9) Market sees a correction: From January highs global markets have fallen 13-14 per cent. That's solid correction territory. Some markets - such as the Chinese indexes have actually fallen by more than 20 per cent into bear territory

10) S&P 500 Index hits 3000: This one is technically a miss, the S&P 500 only made it as far 2930 points - still a record high. But essentially the big Market Watch call for 2018 - that we'd see markets hit record highs and go through a correction proved prescient.