NZ Herald
  • Home
  • Latest news
  • Herald NOW
  • Video
  • New Zealand
  • Sport
  • World
  • Business
  • Entertainment
  • Podcasts
  • Quizzes
  • Opinion
  • Lifestyle
  • Travel
  • Viva
  • Weather

Subscriptions

  • Herald Premium
  • Viva Premium
  • The Listener
  • BusinessDesk

Sections

  • Latest news
  • New Zealand
    • All New Zealand
    • Crime
    • Politics
    • Education
    • Open Justice
    • Scam Update
  • Herald NOW
  • On The Up
  • World
    • All World
    • Australia
    • Asia
    • UK
    • United States
    • Middle East
    • Europe
    • Pacific
  • Business
    • All Business
    • MarketsSharesCurrencyCommoditiesStock TakesCrypto
    • Markets with Madison
    • Media Insider
    • Business analysis
    • Personal financeKiwiSaverInterest ratesTaxInvestment
    • EconomyInflationGDPOfficial cash rateEmployment
    • Small business
    • Business reportsMood of the BoardroomProject AucklandSustainable business and financeCapital markets reportAgribusiness reportInfrastructure reportDynamic business
    • Deloitte Top 200 Awards
    • CompaniesAged CareAgribusinessAirlinesBanking and financeConstructionEnergyFreight and logisticsHealthcareManufacturingMedia and MarketingRetailTelecommunicationsTourism
  • Opinion
    • All Opinion
    • Analysis
    • Editorials
    • Business analysis
    • Premium opinion
    • Letters to the editor
  • Politics
  • Sport
    • All Sport
    • OlympicsParalympics
    • RugbySuper RugbyNPCAll BlacksBlack FernsRugby sevensSchool rugby
    • CricketBlack CapsWhite Ferns
    • Racing
    • NetballSilver Ferns
    • LeagueWarriorsNRL
    • FootballWellington PhoenixAuckland FCAll WhitesFootball FernsEnglish Premier League
    • GolfNZ Open
    • MotorsportFormula 1
    • Boxing
    • UFC
    • BasketballNBABreakersTall BlacksTall Ferns
    • Tennis
    • Cycling
    • Athletics
    • SailingAmerica's CupSailGP
    • Rowing
  • Lifestyle
    • All Lifestyle
    • Viva - Food, fashion & beauty
    • Society Insider
    • Royals
    • Sex & relationships
    • Food & drinkRecipesRecipe collectionsRestaurant reviewsRestaurant bookings
    • Health & wellbeing
    • Fashion & beauty
    • Pets & animals
    • The Selection - Shop the trendsShop fashionShop beautyShop entertainmentShop giftsShop home & living
    • Milford's Investing Place
  • Entertainment
    • All Entertainment
    • TV
    • MoviesMovie reviews
    • MusicMusic reviews
    • BooksBook reviews
    • Culture
    • ReviewsBook reviewsMovie reviewsMusic reviewsRestaurant reviews
  • Travel
    • All Travel
    • News
    • New ZealandNorthlandAucklandWellingtonCanterburyOtago / QueenstownNelson-TasmanBest NZ beaches
    • International travelAustraliaPacific IslandsEuropeUKUSAAfricaAsia
    • Rail holidays
    • Cruise holidays
    • Ski holidays
    • Luxury travel
    • Adventure travel
  • Kāhu Māori news
  • Environment
    • All Environment
    • Our Green Future
  • Talanoa Pacific news
  • Property
    • All Property
    • Property Insider
    • Interest rates tracker
    • Residential property listings
    • Commercial property listings
  • Health
  • Technology
    • All Technology
    • AI
    • Social media
  • Rural
    • All Rural
    • Dairy farming
    • Sheep & beef farming
    • Horticulture
    • Animal health
    • Rural business
    • Rural life
    • Rural technology
    • Opinion
    • Audio & podcasts
  • Weather forecasts
    • All Weather forecasts
    • Kaitaia
    • Whangārei
    • Dargaville
    • Auckland
    • Thames
    • Tauranga
    • Hamilton
    • Whakatāne
    • Rotorua
    • Tokoroa
    • Te Kuiti
    • Taumaranui
    • Taupō
    • Gisborne
    • New Plymouth
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Dannevirke
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Levin
    • Paraparaumu
    • Masterton
    • Wellington
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Blenheim
    • Westport
    • Reefton
    • Kaikōura
    • Greymouth
    • Hokitika
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
    • Wānaka
    • Oamaru
    • Queenstown
    • Dunedin
    • Gore
    • Invercargill
  • Meet the journalists
  • Promotions & competitions
  • OneRoof property listings
  • Driven car news

Puzzles & Quizzes

  • Puzzles
    • All Puzzles
    • Sudoku
    • Code Cracker
    • Crosswords
    • Cryptic crossword
    • Wordsearch
  • Quizzes
    • All Quizzes
    • Morning quiz
    • Afternoon quiz
    • Sports quiz

Regions

  • Northland
    • All Northland
    • Far North
    • Kaitaia
    • Kerikeri
    • Kaikohe
    • Bay of Islands
    • Whangarei
    • Dargaville
    • Kaipara
    • Mangawhai
  • Auckland
  • Waikato
    • All Waikato
    • Hamilton
    • Coromandel & Hauraki
    • Matamata & Piako
    • Cambridge
    • Te Awamutu
    • Tokoroa & South Waikato
    • Taupō & Tūrangi
  • Bay of Plenty
    • All Bay of Plenty
    • Katikati
    • Tauranga
    • Mount Maunganui
    • Pāpāmoa
    • Te Puke
    • Whakatāne
  • Rotorua
  • Hawke's Bay
    • All Hawke's Bay
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Havelock North
    • Central Hawke's Bay
    • Wairoa
  • Taranaki
    • All Taranaki
    • Stratford
    • New Plymouth
    • Hāwera
  • Manawatū - Whanganui
    • All Manawatū - Whanganui
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Manawatū
    • Tararua
    • Horowhenua
  • Wellington
    • All Wellington
    • Kapiti
    • Wairarapa
    • Upper Hutt
    • Lower Hutt
  • Nelson & Tasman
    • All Nelson & Tasman
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Tasman
  • Marlborough
  • West Coast
  • Canterbury
    • All Canterbury
    • Kaikōura
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
  • Otago
    • All Otago
    • Oamaru
    • Dunedin
    • Balclutha
    • Alexandra
    • Queenstown
    • Wanaka
  • Southland
    • All Southland
    • Invercargill
    • Gore
    • Stewart Island
  • Gisborne

Media

  • Video
    • All Video
    • NZ news video
    • Herald NOW
    • Business news video
    • Politics news video
    • Sport video
    • World news video
    • Lifestyle video
    • Entertainment video
    • Travel video
    • Markets with Madison
    • Kea Kids news
  • Podcasts
    • All Podcasts
    • The Front Page
    • On the Tiles
    • Ask me Anything
    • The Little Things
  • Cartoons
  • Photo galleries
  • Today's Paper - E-editions
  • Photo sales
  • Classifieds

NZME Network

  • Advertise with NZME
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • BusinessDesk
  • Newstalk ZB
  • Sunlive
  • ZM
  • The Hits
  • Coast
  • Radio Hauraki
  • The Alternative Commentary Collective
  • Gold
  • Flava
  • iHeart Radio
  • Hokonui
  • Radio Wanaka
  • iHeartCountry New Zealand
  • Restaurant Hub
  • NZME Events

SubscribeSign In
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Home / Business / Companies

Liam Dann: Where were you when credit went crunch?

Liam Dann
By Liam Dann
Business Editor at Large·Herald on Sunday·
19 Aug, 2017 05:00 PM5 mins to read

Subscribe to listen

Access to Herald Premium articles require a Premium subscription. Subscribe now to listen.
Already a subscriber?  Sign in here

Listening to articles is free for open-access content—explore other articles or learn more about text-to-speech.
‌
Save

    Share this article

Ten years on from the credit crunch, are we back where we started? Photo / 123RF

Ten years on from the credit crunch, are we back where we started? Photo / 123RF

Liam Dann
Opinion by Liam Dann
Liam Dann, Business Editor at Large for New Zealand’s Herald, works as a writer, columnist, radio commentator and as a presenter and producer of videos and podcasts.
Learn more

Cripes, the 10th anniversary of the global financial crisis has crept up on me.

Perhaps that's because it is actually only nine years since the crash that most people remember.

Articles commemorating the anniversary of the global market meltdown are getting a little ahead of themselves.

August 2007 was all about the credit crunch which, unfortunately, never made it out of the business pages that year.

Which is not to say it isn't worth remembering. In fact it may offer more important lessons than the crash itself.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Looking back through the news stories of the time is a good reminder of just how unclear things can be in the early stages of a financial crisis.

"The tide of easy money and cheap credit that has run for most of the current decade is turning, with a vengeance," wrote Brian Fallow, the Herald's economics editor at the time.

Interbank lending rates spiked suddenly and dramatically in August on fears that the US housing market - up to its neck in sub-prime mortgage lending - was in bad shape.

The jitters about sub-prime lending had been building since April. But between August 9 and 20 shares took a hit.

Then as the US Fed moved to cut rates, markets bounced back sharply on (what turned out to be) false optimism that the issue had been contained.

Discover more

Opinion

Liam Dann: The housing boom is over

20 May 05:00 PM
Opinion

Dann: Trump's budget battle a real drama

27 May 05:00 PM
Opinion

Dann: Prosperity tethered to farm gate

29 Jul 05:00 PM
Opinion

Dann: Reserve Bank governors don't twerk

02 Sep 05:00 PM

The NZX-50 fell 5.2 per cent in those days a decade ago but, along with US markets, regained it all to hit new record highs by September.

From there they slid far more gradually, eventually going into bear territory (20 per cent off peak) in March 2008 as the US Federal Reserve was forced to bail out investment bank Bear Stearns.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

To put it in perspective the, NZX-50 rose 157 per cent between January 2001 and October 2007. While it shed 20 per cent in the next five months, the market dropped that much in one day back in 1987.

In 2007 we were still very much in boiled frog territory - debating the seriousness of the issue.

New Zealand's official cash rate was still at 8.25 per cent. The Reserve Bank had hiked four times in a row through to July 2007, to try to cool the housing boom. Retail mortgage rates were about 10 per cent.

The Reserve Bank saw no crisis worthy of a rate cut until July 2008.

From a broader economic perspective, the US probably went into recession in December 2007.

New Zealand also went into official recession in the second quarter of 2008. But it wasn't driven by the financial crisis at that point. It was good old fashioned drought.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

History is always out of focus when we are living through it.

This economic cycle might already be past a point that future generations will commemorate as the starting point for a historic crash.

There are already plenty of analysts and economists talking about risks of a bubble in equity markets.

Nobody, not the gloomiest economist or most optimistic fund manager, can see in advance exactly when the possibility of a crash outweighs the opportunity cost of pulling out of a bull run too early.

Markets in the US, New Zealand and around the world continue to break new records every week.

The market is still being propped up by central bank policies - the US Fed in particular - holding rates low, despite seemingly endless promises to hike them.

The cycle has long since become self-fulfilling. Money is looking for a home in equity markets because bank deposits are low. It has flowed into stocks, pushing them to record highs.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

The series of regular record highs creates a perception that the only way is up. More money flows in to equities to reap the rewards and that money pushes prices higher.

Eventually valuations become divorced from the real world performance of companies - their actual profits and growth forecasts. That's bubble territory.

Are we there yet? Maybe.

Should we be putting our savings under the mattress? No, but we are into territory where savers - particular savers - should be thinking about their risk profile.

I mentioned the NZX rising 157 per cent in the bull run before the GFC hit ... it is up more than 220 per cent in this current run.

What could pop the bubble?

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Publications like the The Financial Times are extremely hot on the risk caused by Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) right now.

Investors are piling into these passive investment products that track stock indexes because they have low fees and are delivering returns just as good as more active funds managers.

The FT reports that US investors poured US$391 billion into ETFs in the first seven months this year, surpassing last year's record annual inflow.

They are booming in New Zealand now too.

ETFs are fantastic in a bull market. And if you are in the market for the long haul then they also make a lot of sense.

But the sheer volume of cash is causing concern about the kind of exuberant herd behaviour that often sinks markets. It brings back memories of 2007 for many market players.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Nobody, not the gloomiest economist or most optimistic fund manager, can see in advance exactly when the possibility of a crash outweighs the opportunity cost of pulling out of a bull run too early.

I certainly can't. But I can tell you that it is something the smartest brains in New Zealand's financial markets are thinking a lot about these days.

Save

    Share this article

Latest from Companies

Airlines

Israel to begin bringing back citizens stranded abroad

18 Jun 01:39 AM
Premium
Manufacturing

Hansells owes $10m to staff, ANZ, IRD and company linked to the Hart family

18 Jun 01:34 AM
Business|companies

Vietjet orders 100 Airbus A321neo planes

18 Jun 12:26 AM

Jono and Ben brew up a tea-fuelled adventure in Sri Lanka

sponsored
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Latest from Companies

 Israel to begin bringing back citizens stranded abroad

Israel to begin bringing back citizens stranded abroad

18 Jun 01:39 AM

All of Israel’s commercial aircraft were sent outside of the country.

Premium
Hansells owes $10m to staff, ANZ, IRD and company linked to the Hart family

Hansells owes $10m to staff, ANZ, IRD and company linked to the Hart family

18 Jun 01:34 AM
Vietjet orders 100 Airbus A321neo planes

Vietjet orders 100 Airbus A321neo planes

18 Jun 12:26 AM
Premium
Asahi’s zombie company: The Better Drinks Co posts 10th consecutive loss

Asahi’s zombie company: The Better Drinks Co posts 10th consecutive loss

17 Jun 11:59 PM
Help for those helping hardest-hit
sponsored

Help for those helping hardest-hit

NZ Herald
  • About NZ Herald
  • Meet the journalists
  • Newsletters
  • Classifieds
  • Help & support
  • Contact us
  • House rules
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of use
  • Competition terms & conditions
  • Our use of AI
Subscriber Services
  • NZ Herald e-editions
  • Daily puzzles & quizzes
  • Manage your digital subscription
  • Manage your print subscription
  • Subscribe to the NZ Herald newspaper
  • Subscribe to Herald Premium
  • Gift a subscription
  • Subscriber FAQs
  • Subscription terms & conditions
  • Promotions and subscriber benefits
NZME Network
  • The New Zealand Herald
  • The Northland Age
  • The Northern Advocate
  • Waikato Herald
  • Bay of Plenty Times
  • Rotorua Daily Post
  • Hawke's Bay Today
  • Whanganui Chronicle
  • Viva
  • NZ Listener
  • Newstalk ZB
  • BusinessDesk
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • iHeart Radio
  • Restaurant Hub
NZME
  • About NZME
  • NZME careers
  • Advertise with NZME
  • Digital self-service advertising
  • Book your classified ad
  • Photo sales
  • NZME Events
  • © Copyright 2025 NZME Publishing Limited
TOP