Liam Dann: Markets will cope with election uncertainty

Steven Joyce talks to Herald reporter Isaac Davidson at the National Party election night party at Sky City. 23rd September 2017 New Zealand Herald photo Greg Bowker

The strength of the National vote should reassure markets. They can cope with uncertainty. The fund managers and brokers were braced for it.

After the giant global political shocks of 2016 we watched as the bull market rolled on.

We may see wobbles and a volatile dollar on Monday - while we wait for special votes and coalition. But we've been there before.

There are bigger risks out in the world right now, not least the threat of a serious conflict between the US and North Korea.

A Labour, Green, New Zealand First coalition was always going to worry business the most but on the strength of National's showing so far tonight, the odds on Bill English getting back into the top job will have reassured many.

What is clear is that if Bill English is back as Prime Minister he won't get an easy ride from business.

A mood for change has been a key factor in this campaign.

Labour's momentum may not have lasted the distance but it has invigorated the electorate and forced National to offer a broader suite of polices than they otherwise might have.

The strength of the vote for National last night suggests they have been successful convincing the public that they can offer something different to what we've seen over the past nine years.

Economists and business leaders are unhappy about the risks of an economy propped up immigration. They are fed up with lack of progress on infrastructure and are looking for some real productivity growth to drive GDP per capita.

Against an economic back-drop of low inflation and low interest rates, that's not an easy ask for finance minister Steven Joyce.

All over the world economists and politicians are looking for innovative ways out of the mire.

But National's story of cautious success relative to our international peers will start to wear thin.

Some stimulus from the increased spending as the new Government work's through its election promises won't be a bad thing right now.

What worries many economists and financial market analysts more is the risk that coalition talks result in overly dramatic cuts to immigration.

Something, which could have a chilling knock on to housing.