Despite the recent price slump the cash from the dairy boom is still flowing through.
Homeowners in Auckland are glowing with the wealth effect of official house revaluations. However theoretical a council valuation may be for most, the shift in debt to equity ratios makes people feel more secure and comfortable with increased spending.
Third quarter retail sales figures last week showed an increase of 1.5 per cent compared to the previous quarter, with annual sales rising by 4.9 per cent by year on year comparison. In their analysis of the data Deutsche Bank economists say it all points to solid retail sales growth in the near term.
They also note last week's October card transaction data was strong and suggested a strong start to the fourth quarter.
The trend is good for retailers.
For perhaps a limited time only they are operating in a growth sector - a privilege these days usually reserved for tech companies and retirement village operators.
But there is a catch.
The problem is that we are in a weird and unprecedented space with regard to inflation - or the lack of it.
The pressure of a fully globalised consumer market, online sales and technological advances that keep lowering the cost of production are keeping prices down.
It seems like most stores are discounting constantly.
This is great news for consumers but is creating big difficulties for retailers.
The only costs that are going up in this economic environment are fixed costs like rates and rent and power. Costs retailers can't avoid.
So they can't put up prices but their margins are being squeezed tighter, making it more difficult to cash in on the good times - and increasingly fraught when spending slows.
Unseasonable weather has become an over-sized risk featuring heavily in explanations for poor quarterly performances.
This year listed clothing retailers and sellers of heating appliances, including The Warehouse, blamed an unseasonably warm start to winter for some lousy second quarter numbers.
The wet windy November is likely to already be causing stress for stockists of summer season gear.
It is tough because, while many shoppers will just delay purchasing, shops have only a set number of weeks to move seasonal stock and getting stuck with excess stock is a cost.
But relying on the fickle weather in this country is always going to be problematic and it can hardly be a new issue.
It seems more likely that its impact is heightened by the tightness of the margins and the ever narrowing line between profit and loss.
This kind of tight environment is also unforgiving of any failure in strategy and execution.
We've seen listed retailers such as Pumpkin Patch hammered by investors as they work to turn around strategically.
Pumpkin Patch shares have shed almost 60 per cent of their value in the past 12 months.
The reality is not many retailers are having a great time of it right now and they need to cash in this Christmas.
Rod Duke, whose Briscoe Group has been doing better than many, describes a kind of two-speed economy for retailing.
Companies that have a well-defined market position and execute well should be in good shape during this favourable part of the economic cycle.
We should hope that most of them can get in to shape in time to enjoy the golden weather.
Retailing is important to the economy because it represents a large chunk of domestic GDP.
Retailers are huge employers and there are some serious social and cultural issues looming if shoppers continue to move online - and therefore offshore.
What happens to our main street if major retailers retrench?
Are we happy to fill them with fast food outlets and two dollar shops?
Some big brands are treating bricks and mortar stores as high class show rooms to market themselves while doing much of their business online.
Others are focusing on a higher service model.
Like every sector disrupted by new technology retailing is having to manage constant change.
The best of them will adapt and thrive but some, inevitably, will not.
