Fisher and Paykel Healthcare earnings set to return to earth after stellar 2021 year

F&P Healthcare is expected to report a reduced net profit for the March year on Wednesday. Photo / Supplied

Fisher and Paykel Healthcare's earnings look set to return to more normal levels after last year's record, Covid-driven result.

A Bloomberg consensus of market forecasts for Wednesday's result was for an annual net profit of $376.9 million, down from last year's bumper $524.2m profit, but well up on the March 2020 year's profit of $307.4m.

Market expectations are for the respiratory products maker's revenue to drop to $1.70 billion from $1.97b in the previous financial year.

Brokers Forsyth Barr said the market's focus will be on the mix of the company's earnings and on forward-looking commentary, particularly in relation to costs.

"We assume a sharp second half decline in hardware revenue and broadly flat consumables revenue," Forsyth Barr said.

The broker also assumed modest revenue growth in the homecare group - which includes products used in the treatment of obstructive sleep apnea and respiratory support in the home - in the second half.

Further out, Forsyth Barr has forecast 2023 net profit of $290m - well down on the market consensus of $343m.

In a business update in March, F&P Healthcare said it expects full-year operating revenue for the 2022 financial year to be in the range of $1.675b to $1.70b.

Managing director and chief executive officer Lewis Gradon said then that second-half hospital consumables revenue was tracking to be similar to that reported in the first half.

"This is consistent with reports of the increasing prevalence of the Omicron variant over the last two months and its associated lower respiratory intervention requirements, as well as a relatively mild flu season in the Northern Hemisphere," he said at the time.

"Regardless of how Covid-19 effects unfold over the short term, we are confident our business is well placed to contribute to a positive change in clinical practice and improving outcomes for respiratory patients in general over the long term," Gradon said.

Adrian Allbon, director equity research at Jarden, said it would be a no surprises result.

"Expectations for 2022 are well understood given the revenue downgrade in mid-March, so our focus will be on the CEO's outlook commentary and plans for capturing the stronger longer-run growth opportunity," he said.

"For us, Fisher and Paykel Healthcare is now back in defensive value territory, but near-term earnings momentum remains negative and difficult to calibrate as the hospitals cycle back to more normal activities post-Covid," Allbon said in a commentary.

F&P Healthcare's share price rocketed up to a peak of $37.68 in August 2020 on the back of Covid-19 demand.

While it has since drifted back to more sedate levels, last trading at $21.00, the company is still the NZX's biggest by market cap - $12.16 billion.

According to World Heath Organisation data, the rate of Covid infection around the world has fallen sharply since January.