Volume of freight set to double

The report predicts trucks will be carrying 184 million tonnes of freight a year by 2020. Picture / Mark Mitchell

Freight volumes are expected to double over the next 15 years, with road transport tipped to pick up the lion's share of the increase, a report says.

The main lobby group for trucking - the Road Transport Forum - commissioned Transport Engineering Research New Zealand to look into how freight would grow and what share would be carried by rail or road.

The report projects that over the next 15 years freight volumes will double to 230 million tonnes, based on the economy growing at an average of 3.5 per cent a year.

The report forecasts the trucking sector to be the main winner - it is picked to carry about 80 per cent of freight by 2020, or 184 million tonnes a year. Rail will carry about 46 million.

Road Transport Forum chief executive Tony Friedlander said: "Rail could play a significant and potentially increased role in handling this freight task, but it is no substitute for an efficient, reliable and safe road transport service."

The research was important to help understand future freight needs, transport policy decisions and investments, Friedlander said.

But Toll New Zealand reacted with scepticism to the report.

Company spokeswoman Sue Foley said it was nonsense to suggest rail could not handle a big increase in volume.

"The rail infrastructure is there, it just needs long-term investment and then we can handle the capacity."

Foley cited the huge uptake in volume on the Waitoa line, reopened in 2005 after 14 years, to carry dairy freight from Morrinsville to Fonterra's Te Rapa dry store facility as one example.

Fonterra expected to move 600,000 tonnes of dairy a year through Te Rapa, and Toll was hoping to carry a large portion of that, she said.

The report said Te Rapa might be able to make a significant difference to how freight was transported in and out of the region but it required long-term contracts and significant investment by Toll and Fonterra to ensure its success.

Friedlander said the report's findings were based on population growth, dairy, manufacturing and freight to the ports.

It expected freight growth to be highest in Auckland, Bay of Plenty, Waikato and Christchurch.

The report noted that one of the main challenges was the lack of information about freight volumes and volume share on road and rail. There also needed to be more research on freight in the regions.