There is a view that the driver supply shortage is a function of the general high rates of employment in the NZ economy and the workforce trading up to jobs with higher rates of pay. This would mean that the constrained driver supply is temporary (as I think Auckland Transport is hoping) and services would be restored. But, in my conversations in the transport industry, finding good drivers has been an issue for a very long time. This means the suspended services may not be restored.
The attempt to solve this is to raise driver hourly rates from $26.62 per hour (announced by the previous mayor in August) to somehow get to $30 per hour in Auckland. This will be funded by central government and will extend the very heavy losses and subsidies required to prop up the failed public transport system. Nothing to do with Auckland Transport - except that they are copying an international model that is also failing. Bus patronage has been in decline nearly everywhere for decades, despite the massive subsidies holding fares low.
Unfortunately, there is a high chance raising bus driver wages is not going to be effective on its own. The average age of a bus driver is 50 plus and there is a heavy bias towards male drivers (at the time of the 2018 census there were only 21 per cent female bus drivers).
These statistics indicate that the bus industry is being viewed as a sunset industry, not a viable career option for the young. This is a root cause leading to bus (and other transport industry) driver shortages.
I am not surprised our young people feel this way with the current perception of driving as a dead-end job – not helped by the ridesharing companies that have a terrible reputation. However, if we are to expand public transport, we must make it work for them, or public transport faces retirement.
If presented correctly, I think our young people (say 21- 32) could be persuaded. A 25-year-old student, for example, could drive buses in the commuter peak hours and organise this among their studying responsibilities. My research indicates that this age cohort (the Millenials and Generation Z, the Zoomers) desire a cleaner environment, are not so interested in material goods, are open to new transport modes, would prefer not to own a car, participate in the sharing economy and support social cohesion – sounds like public transport to me.
Development of the gig economy in New Zealand, part-time work co-ordinated by digital solutions, is also attractive to the Millennials and the Zoomers - who have grown up in the digital age. App-based solutions make driver rostering easier and also allow supply of drivers to match demand in peak commuting hours. Increasing part-time worker involvement and making a more attractive option to the current gig options (such as the ridesharing companies) but retaining the flexibility and lifestyle benefits of gig work, should be attractive.
Instead of increasing driver wages (that has not been effective to date), putting dollars into providing driver training (that would relieve any concern about younger driver participation), investing in gig solutions and improving the image of public transport will lead to the long-term solution. If you think it is all about driver pay rates, our Zoomers disagree with you.
Our Millennials and Zoomers seem more sensible than GenX and the Boomers in their younger days; for example, alcohol consumption in these cohorts is trending down; their education levels are much higher and their moral compass is pointed firmly in the direction of a cleaner, less greedy world. Auckland Transport projections indicate a need to increase public transport patronage fivefold in the next 10 years – we must ask our younger workers to help out.
- Dr Andrew Couch is co-founder and managing director of ridepool company Kara.
