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Home / Business / Companies

Dollar's slump boosts exporters

NZ Herald
30 Jul, 2015 05:00 PM4 mins to read

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Fisher & Paykel Healthcare chief executive Mike Daniell. Photo / Dean Purcell

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare chief executive Mike Daniell. Photo / Dean Purcell

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F&P Healthcare up 18.6% this year but analysts divided on whether it can push higher.

The New Zealand dollar's slump against the greenback bodes well for a number of NZX-listed exporters, notably Fisher & Paykel Healthcare.

Driven in part by the currency depreciation, the Manukau-based medical device maker's shares have gained 18.6 per cent in the year to date to close at $7.41 last night.

However, Morningstar slapped a "reduce" rating on its shares last week after they moved through a $7.15 "trigger level". Indeed, with a price-to-earnings multiple of more than 37 times, F&P Healthcare could be seen as a tad expensive.

But not everyone views it that way, particularly Craigs Investment Partners, which has had a consistently bullish view on the firm for well over two years and is maintaining its "buy" rating.

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"I think you'd be brave to be selling shares when they've got such strong momentum," said Craigs' head of private wealth research, Mark Lister. "Things are still going very well for them operationally and the currency's gone their way."

He said there was potential for F&P Healthcare, led by chief executive Mike Daniell, to deliver a very upbeat trading update at its annual meeting on August 27.

Other companies likely to benefit from the weaker kiwi include Diligent Board Member Services, Xero and Tourism Holdings.

Retail boom

Paltry returns on bank deposits helped Nikko Asset Management record a more than 200 per cent increase in retail funds under management since March 2014.

The Auckland-based fund manager - previously Tyndall Investment Management until it rebranded to its Japanese parent's name last year - had grown its retail assets to $675 million by last month.

Its total assets under management have grown by $300 million since the end of last year to reach $4.5 billion.

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"While traditionally we focused on institutional clients, we recognised the opportunity to respond to increasing retail investor demand for access to our investment management approach," said Nikko NZ managing director Peter Lynn.

"In an environment where term deposit rates have been historically low, people are searching for reputable, high-performing investment managers to access the more buoyant stock and bond markets."

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The official cash rate was cut by 25 basis points to 3 per cent last week and some economists are forecasting it to fall as low as 2 per cent.

In that environment, the sharemarket is set to remain attractive compared with low-returning bank deposits.

Buy and sell

Our friends at Bloomberg have identified a simple strategy for making big returns in China's volatile stock markets.

But like any get-rich-quick-scheme, there's a catch. A pattern of state-backed funds purchasing shares in the afternoon has emerged, leading to late-day rallies.

Such funds have been snapping up shares in a bid to prop up Chinese markets, which began crashing in a US$4 trillion sell-off that followed a bull run of epic proportions that ended on June 12.

Policymakers were looking to prop up share markets near the close because "they want to show people how the market has stabilised", Jimmy Zuo, a trader at Huosen Securities Co in Shenzhen, told Bloomberg. Buying at the open and selling at the close generated a 23 per cent return from the Shanghai Composite Index between July 8 and July 23, compared with an 8 per cent buy-and-hold approach return, according to Bloomberg.

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A ban against same-day trading, however, means shares bought at the open can't be sold near the close in order to cash in on an intra-day gain.

Fortunately, the ban does not apply in China's futures markets, where the open-close strategy can also be effectively applied, Bloomberg said.

Fuel savings

Relatively low fuel prices are benefiting all airlines and Air New Zealand stands to gain by close to $249 million for the full year to June 30.

Analysts at Macquarie say that this will contribute to a "solid" result when the airline reports later in August.

Macquarie is forecasting pre-tax profits of $660 million for the year, around 10 per cent ahead of consensus estimates. The figure could be as high as $700 million.

The airline's last pre-tax profit guidance was for between $520 and $530 million, excluding the impact of Virgin Australia losses which have come in at about $13 million for its share of the Australian carrier.

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Virgin also benefited from lower fuel costs and in this region Qantas could be a big winner with savings tipped as a contributor to an estimated $1.1 billion pre-tax profit.

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