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Home / Business / Companies

Brace yourself for low kiwi

Liam Dann
By Liam Dann
Business Editor at Large·NZ Herald·
21 Jun, 2015 09:31 PM4 mins to read

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Shoppers may find those imported bargains such as electrical goods are not as cheap. Photo / Chris Gorman

Shoppers may find those imported bargains such as electrical goods are not as cheap. Photo / Chris Gorman

Liam Dann
Opinion by Liam Dann
Liam Dann, Business Editor at Large for New Zealand’s Herald, works as a writer, columnist, radio commentator and as a presenter and producer of videos and podcasts.
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Weakening dollar is good news for exporters but may prove to be a nasty wake-up call for consumers.

Brace yourself for life with a less valuable dollar. It won't be easy, we've grown used to the buying power that a strong currency brings.

We all know that our export-led economy needs this. But that may be cold comfort as the price of petrol and luxury goods start rising.

Yes, after years of worrying about the kiwi being overvalued, it is starting to not be. Last week it slipped below US70c and looks set to fall further in coming months.

The biggest reason for this is that the balance of monetary policy between the US and New Zealand has shifted - finally. The market expects US interest rates to start to rise from their financial crisis setting - near zero - later this year.

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Meanwhile, the slump in dairy prices threatens our economic growth and has forced the Reserve Bank to reverse its policy of hikes. Earlier this month governor Graeme Wheeler cut the official cash rate and he is expected to do so again at least once, perhaps twice, more this year.

US interest rates aren't likely to top ours for some time yet, but for the global traders controlling the flow of trillions in international currency the trend is the thing.

Our free-floating currency makes it easy for them to shift out of the kiwi and back into US dollars - or any other currency that they dub the new hot buy.

It's not long since the kiwi and aussie were the currencies to be - tipped by currency traders the world over. We provided a lucrative safe haven during the volatility of the global financial crisis and for years after, and we all enjoyed the benefits despite the cries of our struggling exporters.

Now it's their turn. This is the beauty of the floating dollar. It comes to the rescue as export prices fall. Those selling in US currency - dairy farmers, forestry companies and (effectively) tourist operators - are able to convert earnings to more local currency than they previously could. Or it allows them to lower prices and become globally more competitive.

That should provide a shot in the arm for the economy and help maintain growth. Eventually we all benefit from that.

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The trouble is that the downside of the lower dollar will flow through to most of us quicker than the upside. And the downsides affect all the fun stuff: petrol, consumer electronics, imported food and booze and the cost of international travel.

We need to be a bit stoic about this. Consumers are going to need to take the medicine. A high dollar and low commodity prices was a dangerous and unsustainable dynamic for this country that would have cost jobs.

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So after a few precarious months of diving dairy prices and stubborn currency levels the change has come.

After many years of talking it, it is happening.

It is just weeks since we were all patriotically cheering the kiwi on to parity with the Australian currency.

Even with the Aussie economy becalmed the kiwi has drifted back to around A90c and talk of parity has gone the way of cricket world cup dreams. If there is a lesson in all of this, it's that it is the direction of a market dynamic that sets the tone. When the tide changes sentiment quickly goes with it.

The same thing happened with dairy prices. Milk powder prices sat at historic highs for so long we almost forgot how far they could fall.

Now it's the dollar; what next?

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Swap the words dairy, kiwi, for property. It doesn't sound so far-fetched when you put it in the context of a global market place in which New Zealand will always be a bit player.

As for the currency. Here's hoping for a short, sharp correction to give the exporters the tailwind they need for this commodity cycle.

But then let's see it bounce back.

This is where we find out if we really have a more modern, productive and "value added" economy than we did 15 years ago when the dollar went to US38c.

I believe we have - despite the need for further progress. Our place in the world is stronger and our currency should rightly remain more valuable over time. Let's hope so because life with the kiwi below US50c would involve a painful adjustment.

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