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Home / Business / Companies

Big bounces for markets

Jamie Gray
By Jamie Gray
Business Reporter·NZME.·
20 Oct, 2015 04:00 PM4 mins to read

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The S&P/NZX50 Index finished yesterday at 5895.49 - 62.36 points or 1 per cent short of its record high of 5957.85 set on August 3.

The S&P/NZX50 Index finished yesterday at 5895.49 - 62.36 points or 1 per cent short of its record high of 5957.85 set on August 3.

New Zealand stocks head higher after surviving China share slump better than most.

The New Zealand share market has regained nearly all the ground it lost during August's China-led market meltdown.

The S&P/NZX50 Index finished yesterday at 5895.49 - 62.36 points or 1 per cent short of its record high of 5957.85 set on August 3.

When the China issue was at its worst, the index - on an intraday basis - was down 8.3 per cent from its peak. At yesterday's closing level, the index has recovered most of that ground to be 6.3 per cent off its low point of 5546 on September 4.

Concerns about China - the world's second biggest economy - came to a head in late August and early September, leading to wild fluctuations in the Shanghai Composite Index and to sharply weaker markets around the world.

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Data out this week showing China's growth came in at 6.9 per cent over the third quarter - the weakest since the global financial crisis - showed there was still cause for concern.

"China still has a few issues and I don't think that we are out of the woods yet," said Mark Lister, head of private wealth research at Craigs Investment Partners. "But it feels like people have calmed down a bit and there is cause for positivity," he said.

"It [the New Zealand market] has recovered nearly all that weakness and it is close to its all-time highs," he said.

"It's a robust rebound and if we look at the United States, it has rebounded quite strongly too."

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The S&P500 in the US was still about 4.5 per cent below its peak for the year after being down by about 13 per cent at one point in the China aftermath.

AMP Capital, in its quarterly Strategic Outlook, said volatility in global sharemarkets had been especially marked over the September quarter.

The fund manager's head of fixed income, Grant Hassell, said the quarter was notable for being the first negative quarter for global and New Zealand shares in more than three years.

"Our view is that China growth risks are overplayed, global share market valuations are attractive, US interest rates will not rise materially, the global banking system is better capitalised than in previous years and there are no major housing market bubbles to bring it down," Hassell said.

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While many have been concerned about the potential for a slowdown in the Chinese economy to lead to a global recession, AMP Capital's view has been less pessimistic.

AMP chief economist Bevan Graham said China was going through a difficult transformation.

"But we remain of the view that a slower China is a more sustainable China," Graham said. "In addition, we're already starting to see signs of recovery."

Lister at Craigs said the market was looking "quite solid" as the annual meetings season approached.

"I'm not hearing anything out there from the corporates, big or small, that suggests that we are heading into a recession, which was the buzz word a few months ago," he said, adding that the big turnaround in dairy prices had aided sentiment.

Lister said that with the prospect of another rate cut from the Reserve Bank in store so-called interest rate sensitive stocks like Spark, the power generators and some property companies had enjoyed a strong run over the last few weeks.

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The perception that the US Federal Reserve may hold off raising official interest rates until next year had also served to inject some calm into market sentiment around the globe.

In the currency markets, those expectations have brought renewed weakness to the US dollar, which in turn has put upward pressure on the New Zealand dollar.

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