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Home / Business / Companies / Banking and finance

On-target inflation likely to rule out Aussie bank rate cut

By Lucy Hughes Jones
AAP·
26 Oct, 2015 04:00 PM3 mins to read

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Janet Yellen will have to "consider weakness in emerging markets", says Ben Bernanke. Photo / AP

Janet Yellen will have to "consider weakness in emerging markets", says Ben Bernanke. Photo / AP

Inflation is unlikely to be the trigger for an Australian Reserve Bank rate cut.

The consumer price index, the key measure of inflation, is expected to have risen 0.7 per cent in the September quarter for an annual rate of 1.7 per cent, an AAP survey of 15 economists shows.

That's below the RBA's target inflation range of 2 to 3 per cent.

September quarter inflation, due to be released tomorrow, follows a rise of 0.7 per cent in the June quarter for an annual rate of 1.5 per cent.

National Australia Bank economist Tapas Strickland said higher tobacco prices and housing charges - mainly from utilities and new dwellings - are expected to be the main drivers of growth in the three months to September.

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But a benign outlook for inflation is unlikely to sway the central bank's neutral cash rate stance, TD Securities head of Asia-Pacific research Annette Beacher said.

"Upbeat RBA October board meeting minutes put another nail in the coffin of a November rate cut," she said.

"With the RBA at least twice a month reaffirming that it sees inflation remaining within target, even with the depreciation of the exchange rate, we can't see even a weaker than expected September quarter CPI report being a trigger."

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Any movement in rates will likely depend more on further tightening in financial conditions, which may stem from the recent mortgage interest rate hikes by the big four banks, Strickland said.

The cash rate has remained at the record low of 2.0 per cent for six straight months since a cut of 0.25 basis points in May.

Yellen's 'tough calls'

Former Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke said weighing the effect of the slowing global economy would be key to the bank's decision on when to raise interest rates.

"She's got some tough calls," Bernanke said in an interview aired on CNN, referring to Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen. "The tough decision that she and her colleagues have to make is, is there enough domestic momentum to keep us moving forward despite these drags from abroad."

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The world's largest economy has recently shown evidence it is "pretty strong", said Bernanke, citing the housing sector, car sales and consumer spending. Even so, Yellen will have to consider weakness in emerging markets, including China, he said.

Fed policy makers are debating whether to raise rates for the first time in nine years, amid signs the global economy is losing steam. A slowdown in emerging markets driven by weak commodity prices forced the IMF this month to cut its outlook for global growth in 2015 to 3.1 per cent, the weakest since 2009, from a July forecast of 3.3 per cent.

Bernanke declined to say when he thinks the Fed should raise rates.

The Fed's rate-setting committee will meet over the next two days.

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