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Home / Business / Companies / Banking and finance

NZ mostly protected in event of 'Grexit'

Liam Dann
By Liam Dann
Business Editor at Large·NZ Herald·
28 Jun, 2015 05:00 PM4 mins to read

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Alexis Tsipras has called a referendum for Greeks to decide on EU demands. Picture / AP

Alexis Tsipras has called a referendum for Greeks to decide on EU demands. Picture / AP

Liam Dann
Opinion by Liam Dann
Liam Dann, Business Editor at Large for New Zealand’s Herald, works as a writer, columnist, radio commentator and as a presenter and producer of videos and podcasts.
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Greece’s precarious financial status would have had a bigger global impact if it had happened five years ago.

It is crunch time for Greece. Again. Yes, you've heard that before, probably many times since the country's debt crisis first blew up around 2009.

But, although last-minute compromises are always on the cards, this looks certain to be a big week in Greek history.

The latest deadline for the Greek Government to reach a deal with creditors and maintain a debt payment programme is midnight tomorrow, June 30 (actually it was June 5 but they got an extension).

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And, although it made some concessions, the socialist Government has refused to go far enough to avoid default and secure its place in the European Union.

Instead, Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has called a referendum in which Greeks can decide whether they want to meet the demands or default.

Read more:
• Greek banks shut - capital controls coming
• Greece to listen to the people

Whatever happens, that leaves a working week of uncertainty where no one is clear about Greece's financial status.

Greeks are already queuing up at ATMs and hoarding cash. There is talk of calling a bank holiday to avoid a run on withdrawals.

It is not clear if Greece has the liquidity to get it through the week or any lifelines left in terms of emergency support from the EU.

If Greece does default it seems likely it will have to ditch the euro and leave the Eurozone. That's the much talked about "Grexit" - although there is no precedent for this and it is not a foregone conclusion.

Discover more

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Greece bailout looks hopeful

23 Jun 05:00 PM
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NZ dollar rises from 5-year low

24 Jun 05:43 AM
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Greece to listen to the people

27 Jun 05:00 PM
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28 Jun 08:34 PM

It is high drama and of huge importance for the whole of Europe.

It is dreadful for the Greek people, who for various political reasons have prolonged the crisis by failing to either fully adopt IMF reforms and restructure their economy or take the bold step of casting off on their own.

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Six years after the crisis blew up they are in worse shape than ever and still face a painfully long road back to prosperity.

But what does it mean for this part of the world?

The reality is that it is not as worrying as it would have been if it had happened five years ago.

Back then the US was still on the ropes and the rest of Europe was also facing a banking crisis.

Global credit concerns aren't what they used to be, and with our reliance on China, the US and Australia for our economic direction New Zealand isn't really exposed to any direct crunch from the Greek situation.

If you want things to worry about, dairy prices and China's economic slowdown should remain top of your list.

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Even in the US there is relatively detached interest in the crisis. Some have suggested that President Barack Obama's biggest worry about a Grexit is that it might push Greece towards Russia, shifting the geopolitical balance in Europe.

The most immediate impact of the whole thing for global markets will be on currency and it might even break the right way for the kiwi dollar - at least as far as the Reserve Bank is concerned.

The crisis will force global markets to assume "risk on" positions and money will flow to safe haven investments like German bonds and US dollars.

The greenback has already rallied and is expected to rise further during the week.

That means our dollar is likely to keep falling.

A few years ago New Zealand and Australia were also seen as safe havens and a prop as various financial crises unfolded around the world. It will be interesting to see to what extent we still are.

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Regardless, a stronger greenback will put downward pressure on the kiwi and that isn't such a bad thing - as the Reserve Bank reminded us Friday.

The bank reiterated that the kiwi is at "unjustifiable and unsustainable levels" despite having fallen 10 per cent in the past few months.

So maybe that is it for now, with Greece just another variable in the shifting currency equation for New Zealand - despite being the centre of historically unprecedented events in Europe.

Let's hope. The outside risk of a wider contagion for European banks remains. If the financial fear spreads to Portugal and Spain then this could have altogether more serious implications for the global economy.

And let's hope - for the Greek people's sake - that they can find a path through this back to some sort of stability.

Clarification - An earlier version of this story referred to the possibility of Greece exiting the European Union rather than the Eurozone.

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