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Home / Business / Companies / Banking and finance

Liam Dann: GDP underwhelms, points to tougher year ahead

Liam Dann
By Liam Dann
Business Editor at Large·NZ Herald·
17 Mar, 2022 12:26 AM5 mins to read

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New Zealand's construction industry rebounded quickly after Omicron.

New Zealand's construction industry rebounded quickly after Omicron.

New Zealand's economic performance in the last quarter of 2021 wasn't terrible.

At 3 per cent growth it beat the Reserve Bank's forecasts of 2.3 per cent.

That took the annual growth rate for the year to 5.6 per cent - well ahead of Treasury's 5.1 per cent forecast.

But, for almost the first time since the pandemic began, it did not surprise on the upside and beat market expectations.

Bank economists had forecast GDP for the December quarter to land somewhere between 3.2 and 3.8 per cent.

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Bloomberg's consensus forecast was for 3.3 per cent.

So while the strength of the economy can comfortably be described as solid or robust, the fact it is no longer outperforming expectations to the extent it once did represented a significant shift.

With the Omicron outbreak keeping people home and war in Europe spiking inflation there is a growing consensus that things are only going to get tougher this year.

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"The New Zealand economy's resilience through the pandemic has been very impressive, but this quarter's result isn't the sort of dramatic overperformance we've become used to, and hints at broader headwinds set to deepen," wrote ASB senior economist Nathaniel Keall.

Many sectors also failed to deliver the sort of overperformance we've become used to post-lockdown, he said.

"Given the more uncertain and fitful emergence from alert levels this time, retail spending only clawed back about half of its Q3 fall this time around - after the first lockdown it swiftly rose back to record highs."

Broader services were also mixed with weak performance in the accommodation, transport and education sectors highlighting Covid impacts.

ANZ's Miles Workman warned of a possible "hard landing" ahead.

"All up, the Q4 GDP data reflect a robust, albeit very stimulated economy, via both fiscal and monetary policy. But the outlook has a lengthy list of turning points that suggest we shouldn't expect more of the same," he said.

"Even looking beyond the near-term wobbles associated with the Omicron outbreak, a rather potent combo of high inflation and rising interest rates is set to erode household incomes from both ends.

"To prevent a hard landing, a lot depends on the revival of international tourism and education, and the labour market holding it together."

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The KiwiBank economics team took a largely more optimistic view of the December quarter GDP but still concluded that 2022 was looking a lot tougher.

A post-Delta bounce back of this magnitude was encouraging, they said, noting that New Zealand's GDP ended the year just 0.7 per cent smaller than before the Delta lockdown.

It "shows that we begin 2022 on a strong footing. But the growth outlook has softened. We see growth over 2022 slow to 3 per cent from last year's 5.6 per cent. And the risk of a recession has lifted."

Westpac economists had been the most bullish of the forecasters, tipping a 3.8 per cent rebound.

"Relative to our forecast, the main shortfall was in agriculture (-3.8 per cent). That suggests some weakness in output beyond the decline in milk collections," said Westpac chief economist Michael Gordon.

Michael Gordon chief economist Westpac Bank. Picture supplied
Michael Gordon chief economist Westpac Bank. Picture supplied

As expected, the rebound in activity was strongest in the "physical" space, where the ongoing public health restrictions over the quarter were least limiting, he said.

That included manufacturing (+6.5 per cent), construction (8.7 per cent), mining (9.5 per cent) and retail (10.7 per cent).

The services industries were more restrained – while professional services saw a strong lift (9.3 per cent), those focused on in-person activities such as education, hospitality and recreation went further backwards over the quarter.

Sydney-based Capital Economics retained the most optimistic outlook on the local economy.

Its New Zealand analyst Ben Udy said he expected the rebound to continue through the first half of this year despite the Omicron wave.

"The gradual relaxation of restrictions throughout [the fourth quarter] suggests that activity rebounded further in [the first quarter]," he said.

The Omicron outbreak had hit the economy hard.

Card transactions fell 7.6 per cent (month on month) in February as high infections forced many consumers to stay home, he said.

"Still, even if retail sales do not rebound in March, average sales would still be higher than in [the fourth quarter]," he said.

Data on mobility suggested people were a little more active in the first quarter than the fourth.

"We are therefore sticking to our forecast that GDP will rise further in the current quarter despite the Omicron outbreak," he said.

"Looking ahead GDP should rise even more strongly in [the second quarter]."

New Zealand's decision to reopen the border to tourists from the start of May would provide a significant boost to tourism activity, Udy said.

"To be sure the recovery will be gradual. But with services exports 50 per cent below their pre-virus peak, the recovery will surely support GDP growth in the quarters ahead."

Broadly there was agreement among economists that, despite beating the Reserve Bank's February forecasts, the figure would do nothing to shift its thinking on interest rate hikes.

"Rather than a sign that the economy was running hotter than expected, this suggests that the Covid restrictions in place over the quarter were less of a restraint on economic activity than thought," said Westpac's Gordon.

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