Flat November retail stats are surprising economists, who expected a decline.
Flat November retail stats are surprising economists, who expected a decline.
KEY POINTS:
A lift in car sales and supermarket shopping helped keep seasonally adjusted retail sales for November largely unchanged from October, to the surprise of economists.
Amid worldwide financial turmoil, the median forecast in a Reuters poll of economists had been for a decline of 0.9 per cent.
Releasingthe retail data today, Statistics New Zealand (SNZ) said vehicle sales continued to be volatile, rising 6.9 per cent or $37 million in November after a fall of 14.5 per cent in October and a rise of 6.1 per cent in September.
Meanwhile, in November fuel sales were down 7.3 per cent or $44m, reflecting lower fuel prices.
When vehicle-related industries were excluded, sales rose 0.3 per cent or $11m in November, compared to a prediction by economists of no change.
Supermarket and grocery store sales rose 2.6 per cent or $32m in November, partly offset by a 6.6 per cent or $15m fall in accommodation and a 3 per cent or $6m drop in appliance retailing.
The trend in total retail sales was flat, but the cumulative effect of small monthly movements had resulted in a decline of 1 per cent since January 2008, SNZ said.
The flat November figures for total sales - a rise of less than 0.1 per cent or under $1m - followed a fall of 1.3 per cent in October.
ANZ-National Bank senior economist Khoon Goh said the numbers were driven partly by the rebound in vehicle sales, and the underlying story was still one of consumer weakness.
"We shouldn't read too much into this number," he said.
Deutsche Bank chief economist Darren Gibbs said the November survey was showing a big surge in car sales and food retailing which had kept sales flat.
"I'm not entirely sure I believe it and I expect the survey will be heavily negative in December," he said.
