Rumours of a BNZ sale appear to have stemmed from New Zealand rather than Australia. Photo / File
Rumours of a BNZ sale appear to have stemmed from New Zealand rather than Australia. Photo / File
The rumour mill has gone into overdrive over the talk of Kiwibank buying the BNZ from its Australian parent National Australia Bank.
A deal of that size would be worth an estimated $10 billion to $14b, making it one of the biggest to take place and unlikely that a straight-outpurchase would be a goer.
That has analysts speculating that up to 50 per cent of the combined banks would be floated on the local share market.
Kiwibank is 51 per cent owned by New Zealand Post, with the other 49 per cent held by the New Zealand Superannuation Fund and ACC.
Between them NZ Super and ACC manage around $90 billion in assets but even a $10 billion spend-up could be seen as taking too big a punt on one asset.
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NZ Post on the other hand likely doesn't have the means or desire to invest anything more into banking and would probably be looking for an exit as part of the deal.
A sharemarket float would be lapped up by local investors including KiwiSaver funds, which have faced a dearth of decent-sized floats in recent years.
But that is all supposing that NAB has the desire to sell the BNZ. One Kiwi analyst who is based in Australia noted that the rumours were largely coming out of New Zealand.
The Australian media, which is normally full of leaked details on sharemarket floats and big deals, has been silent on the issue, suggesting it is Kiwibank that is more keen on the purchase than NAB on being a seller.
Kiwibank is staying mum on the chatter. A spokeswoman for the bank said it did not comment on market speculation.
Local banks have to start holding more capital from July this year after Reserve Bank changes announced last year and that has prompted the suggestion that the Australian banks might all be looking to offload their New Zealand arms.
But even with the capital increases the NZ banks remain highly profitable. This is a deal that seems very unlikely to happen.
GOLDEN RUN OVER?
The price of gold surged upwards towards the end of last year, hitting US$1550 per ounce as interest rates began to fall around the world and investors surged into the safe haven asset.
But Morningstar is predicting that while the price of gold will stay steady this year at around US$1500 an ounce, it will likely fall away over the next few years as investors look for better returns elsewhere.
Exchange traded funds have been big buyers of gold and now hold a record level of it, equivalent to around a year's worth of mine production.
Gold prices are forecast to decline to around US$1250 per ounce in real terms by 2022.
But, says Morningstar, they could also sell-out quickly should interest rates rise, leaving a big gap which would weigh on prices.
And they doubt the drop in investment demand will be filled by jewellery buyers.
"A combination of government initiatives and shifting preferences is driving slower growth in jewellery demand in China and India, the two largest markets, despite rising incomes."
Morningstar is forecasting gold demand to be 9 per cent lower leading prices to decline to around US$1250 per ounce in real terms by 2022.
NZX PULLS DATA
NZX is reviewing its published financial metrics for listed companies following complaints that some of the information displayed was incorrect.
Figures for electronic components maker Rakon were singled out after the Herald published a table sourced to NZX Research showing the company's financial performance since 2016.
The data did not match the company's reported performance at Ebitda level, which was highlighted by one investor and escalated to NZX management in early January.
Since then subscribers to the stock exchange's research website have had no access to individual companies' financial profile pages while the data is under review.
A spokesman said the NZX was working with its data provider, S&P CapIQ, to make sure the metrics "we are presenting are in line with expectations around standardised financial metric methodologies".
"We are close to having the CRC financial profile page back up and running for our customers."
