Guangzhou, in southern China.
China said on Saturday it would issue more debt to boost the property market, recapitalise banks and help cash-strapped local governments, as Beijing seeks to reassure investors over its efforts to lift the economy.
Announcing the measures at a briefing in Beijing, Minister of Finance Lan Fo’an gave few details on the amount of funding but suggested the Government plans more stimulus measures to shore up growth.
“Our counter-cyclical adjustment goes far beyond what I have mentioned,” Lan told reporters, adding more steps were under discussion. “The central Government, when it comes to increasing the deficit and increasing debt, we have significant room.”
Markets are waiting for signs Beijing will increase fiscal spending to back up monetary stimulus plans, amid persistent doubts over the strength of the world’s second-largest economy.
Stocks in China plunged this week after state planners held a press conference on the economy but failed to give details of stronger fiscal support.
Lan said Beijing would issue bonds to enable local governments to buy back idle land from developers as well as some of China’s millions of unsold new homes. The Government will also issue a special-purpose bond to help large banks replenish their capital, which would enhance their ability to lend.
Beijing would also give more help to groups such as students and low-income earners, Lan said.
The Ministry of Finance cannot announce specific amounts of extra fiscal stimulus until these are rubber-stamped by China’s Parliament, the National People’s Congress. Its next standing committee is expected in the coming weeks.
The Government’s stimulus efforts follow declining household and stock market confidence on the back of a prolonged property sector slowdown and state crackdowns on sectors such as e-commerce and finance.
After months of incremental measures to shore up flagging domestic demand, Beijing suddenly changed tack in late September, with the central bank launching China’s biggest monetary stimulus since the pandemic.
The measures, which included extensive support for the stock and property markets, drove the benchmark CSI 300 index up 24% before a week-long holiday. But markets tumbled again on reopening this week after disappointment with the state planners’ briefing.
Alicia García-Herrero, chief Asia-Pacific economist at Natixis, said it was difficult to understand why Beijing was not acting more forcefully or providing more clarity on the spending plans. “I don’t think it will lift the market massively,” she said after Lan spoke on Saturday.
The Finance Ministry’s policies on reducing local government debt and stabilising the property market were sound from a macroeconomic viewpoint but the market was seeking more, said Raymond Yeung, chief economist for Greater China with ANZ.
“I think the market will be disappointed,” Yeung said. “Everyone was looking for a number but the Finance Minister did not give us one.”
He said the ministry could have offered a proposed expenditure figure to be confirmed by the National People’s Congress.
Heron Lim, an economist at Moody’s Analytics, said bailing out local governments would help them to increase spending, boosting the economy.
But without a figure for the Government’s stimulus package, investors might take “a step back until they are absolutely certain of the direction fiscal support is taking”, he said.
However, Andy Rothman, an investment strategist at the Matthews Asia fund, said the series of press conferences from economic planners indicated a “fundamental shift” on the economy by China’s leader Xi Jinping.
“Xi understands that the policy response must be significant if it is to restore confidence among consumers and entrepreneurs... It will take time [but] a turnaround in confidence is likely on the horizon,” Rothman said.
Lan said one of the most significant areas of new spending would be easing the debt burden of local governments. Many relied heavily on property and related industries for their revenue.
“This upcoming policy will be one of the largest in recent years in addressing debt risks,” Lan said, adding it would boost confidence by helping local governments to pay salaries and other bills.
Economists have estimated that China needs to spend up to 10 trillion yuan ($1.4t) over two years on additional stimulus measures to reflate the economy, adding that much of it needed to be directed at households to shore up domestic demand.
Written by: Joe Leahy in Beijing and Edward White in Shanghai
© Financial Times