Carmel Fisher: Prepare for the worst and hope for the best when reviewing portfolio

A few years ago, none of the January predictions pointed to Greece's fiscal situation being the catalyst for a eurozone crisis. Photo / AP

It's the time of the year when newspapers and magazines are peppered with financial predictions, tempting us to take action and change our portfolios because, well, it's the New Year.

We would be better to ignore the predictions, because nobody has a crystal ball to tell us what lies ahead and, besides, invariably the shocks that clobber economies and markets often come out of the blue.

A few years ago, none of the January predictions pointed to Greece's fiscal situation being the catalyst for a eurozone crisis. The 2011 predictions didn't include the tsunami in Japan that caused global economic tremors and while the oil price decline is featuring in market predictions, it has been a recent development hardly mentioned in the closing months of last year.

Not only should we ignore market predictions but we should also avoid the temptation to change our investment strategy just because it's that time of the year.

While the New Year is a popular time for people to change jobs or think about moving house, it does not automatically follow that your finances require an overhaul. Chances are your risk tolerance hasn't changed between December and January. Ditto your investment objectives or investing timeframe.

By all means review your portfolio, but don't think you have to make major changes just because one particular asset class is predicted to be the winner in 2015 or because another performed badly last year.

When I am tempted to make large changes to my portfolio, I often find it useful to look at the asset allocation quilt to remind me of the folly of trying to pick future winners.

They are charts showing the best and worst performing asset classes for each year, extended over long periods. The reason they're referred to as quilts is that each asset class is colour coded and because the winners and losers vary each year, there is no long-term pattern - so the chart ends up resembling a patchwork quilt.

One year will see emerging markets as the best performing asset with bonds or real estate being the laggards; the following year those asset classes might swap position.

The charts illustrate the concept of "reversion to the mean" which means that over time extreme performances will revert to average.

However, there are things we should do. It is important to consider whether there has been, or might be, any change in our circumstances that warrant a change in investment strategy. We should also look at what has changed in our portfolio in the past year - has the balance got out of kilter or is our long-term asset allocation intact?

Take some time to consider what went wrong during 2014 and see if there are lessons to be learned.

Consider what went well and whether it was because of good luck or good management.

If you avoided falling prices by taking money out of particular markets, great, but if you failed to get back into those markets to capture the rally, then it's less great.

After you've completed your review, you can then relax and enjoy the start of the New Year knowing that, whatever happens, at least your finances are sorted.

A healthy mindset probably helps, too - prepare for the worst, hope for the best and count on being surprised.

This column is presented in association with Fisher Funds.