Allbirds' wings clipped after losses widen, forecast falls short

Allbirds co-founder, chief executive Tim Brown. Photo / Michael Craig

Allbirds' shares slumped in extended Nasdaq trading as the sustainable shoe firm, co-founded by Kiwi Tim Brown, reported a jump in revenue but a wider loss and lower first-quarter guidance.

Pandemic-induced labour shortages were blamed, in part, for the company's headwinds. Wider than expected third-quarter (and now fourth-quarter) losses, and US markets entering correction territory have also been factors in Allbirds' prolonged sharemarket slide.

The shares were trading at US$8.00 after its fourth-quarter result was announced, after closing at US$8.57 on Wednesday.

The stock has been under almost constant downward pressure since the highs of its November 4 IPO, when shares almost doubled in value to hit an intra-day high of US$29.90.

On Wednesday, it hit an intraday low of US$7.98.

Allbirds said it lost US$10.4 million in its fourth-quarter compared with a loss of $9.4m in the fourth quarter of 2020.

Revenue for the quarter was US$97.2m, ahead of the consensus expectation of US$91.8m.

For the full 2021 year, Allbirds said it lost US$45.4m versus its 2021 loss of US$25.9m as revenue increased by 27 per cent to US$27m.

While Allbirds' fourth-quarter loss was in line with expectations, the company's first-quarter (US$60m - US$63m) and full-year 2022 (US$355m to $365m) revenue forecasts were both shy of what analysts had been picking.

Allbirds projects included what the company called "deliberate price actions" to counter inflation and add up to 1-3 per cent to its 2022 earnings, depending on timing.

The share slump will also hit Brown, the ex-All White who co-founded the San Francisco-based Allbirds in 2016.

Brown owns 15.3 million shares, which were worth some US$458m ($650m) as Allbirds spiked close to US$30 with its initial listing but are worth around US$122m at the shoe maker's current stock price.

Allbirds has been using its IPO proceeds, in part, to open more stores. But with the pandemic crimping its hiring efforts, it said today that 80 per cent of sales are coming from online.

Kiwi investors keeping the faith

Ahead of the listing, Hatch - which has edged out startup rivals Sharesies and Stake to have an exclusive on NZ investor access to the IPO - said it had some 11,000 Kiwi investors on its Allbirds waitlist.

The other partial-ownership platforms have since piled in.

This afternoon, Stake founder Matt Leibowitz told the Herald "Kiwi investors on Stake have been trading in Allbirds more than larger e-commerce sector companies like Shopify or Visa, and it's been more popular in New Zealand than in our other markets.

"So far, the results haven't had any significant impact on trading numbers, so Kiwis are holding their positions.

"The numbers might make you think Allbirds' wings are clipped. They missed analysts' revenue expectations, and their losses are widening. That's reflected in the drop in their share price to an all-time low, after drops during the last trading session and in after-hours trading.

"But at the same time, the market as a whole is experiencing a downturn", Leibowitz said.

"The business improved fundamentally even if falling short of expectations," he added.

The record fourth-quarter revenue included a 16 per cent increase in online sales.

"And one of Allbirds' differentiators is their commitment to the environment. The company reduced the carbon footprint of its top 10 products by 14 per cent," Leibowitz said.

Overall, "Only time will tell if the business can take off," the Stake CEO said.