Stock Takes: Soaring prices and lost luggage, why the travel boom is different this time

Travel is taking off again but it's different this time. Photo / Grant Bradley

The end of lockdowns and border closures has resulted in enormous pent-up demand, meaning New Zealand’s tourism companies are back in business.

But it’s not the same as it was before the pandemic. Consumers are paying more to travel but are getting less for their buck, says aviation writer and deputy business editor Grant Bradley.

“They’re getting a worse service than they were pre-pandemic in many cases.”

Bradley told the Herald’s Stock Takes podcast that domestic airfares were up 25 per cent in the past six to nine months and international prices had risen even further

That had seen some passengers venting online.

But Bradley said millions of passengers were still getting to where they wanted to be on time and with their bags.

The return of travel has been a boon for Air New Zealand and Auckland Airport. Air NZ reported a half-year profit back in the black last week.

Bradley said that compared to this time last year, it was a more than half-a billion-dollar turnaround for the airline.

Air New Zealand also talked about bringing its dividend back by the end of this year.

Bradley said given the steep lift in its earnings there would have been questions if the airline hadn’t mentioned resuming its dividend payout to investors who had to cough up big time to support the company last year.

“But this time last year dividends were years away - the forecast was around 2026 - so long-suffering shareholders of Air New Zealand will be welcoming a possible return to paying dividends later this year.”

Bradley said it was a return to the golden age of travel for the airline.

“They’re enjoying healthy profits and they’re looking forward to a full-year result of half a billion dollars or more. That’s good for them and good for the shareholders but for the passengers, not so much.

“We’re looking at, for the medium term anyway, elevated airfares and fairly bumpy travel.”

There is talk of a recession later this year and Kiwis are feeling the pinch of rising prices.

Bradley said historically travel was highly discretionary but that seemed to have changed a bit of late.

“People seem to regard travel and flying as an absolute necessity to a point. At the moment forward bookings for New Zealand - there’s no sign of these economic headwinds crimping demand.”

Instead, he said the cooling economy could help the airline as oil price comes down further reducing its jet fuel bill.

Listen to the full podcast for insights into this new era of travel.

Stock Takes is available on iHeartRadio, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. New episodes come out every Wednesday and are brought to you with support from Fisher Funds.