Now to the forecast ...

Air New Zealand, Contact Energy, GPG and Telecom are the companies with the most to gain this year if the stockbroking community's crystal ball is anything to go by.

The quartet tops the popularity list in the 2005 Business Herald Brokers' Pick competition with three ticks each. With two votes of confidence, the next raft of chosen firms are Auckland International Airport, Fisher and Paykel Healthcare, Independent Newspapers, Mainfreight and Waste Management.

Unlike previous years, when one or two companies have stood out quite clearly, the nine firms in this year's competition have spread their favours more widely.

Thirty companies are on the 2005 list in a wide variety of sectors ranging from POD (formerly Designer Textiles) to the listed stock exchange, NZX, itself.

Goldman Sachs JBWere sums the flavour up, explaining its choices by saying: "Overall very defensive, in line with our macro view of a soft landing for the economy next year as higher interest rates, lower immigration and high household debt starts to bite."

Then there are a few wildcards - like Cadmus - thrown in for fun.

As for last year, an unbelievable surge in New Zealand Oil & Gas' share price saw Direct Broking take out the 2004 Business Herald Brokers' Pick award.

The exploration company gained a whopping 194.4 per cent over the year, making Direct the clear winners.

Results varied wildly with Direct making a 62.2 per cent return while last place getters ABNAmro Craigs managed just 3.94 per cent with their chosen portfolio.

Overall, the NZSX-50 Gross returned 23.6 per cent during the competition - not that it was taking part. Five of the 10 firms competing beat the index while the other half fell short. An unfair comparison, perhaps, given the sterling year the exchange had - gaining solidly to end the year up strongly and with the index through the 3000-point level.

Stephen Tindall's Warehouse was the downfall of many last year. Six of the 10 broking firms in the competition chose the big Red Shed as one to watch in 2004. And it certainly was, but not for the reason they hoped. Warehouse shares fell more than 20 per cent during the competition, dashing the hopes of its advocates.

As one broker said at the start of the 2004 competition, "it's what you don't have" that can make the difference.

With that in mind, the competition rules have been changed slightly this year: at intervals throughout the year brokers will be given the chance to change one of their five picks, which on the face of it, most would have done with The Warehouse.

That said, ASB Securities sees potential for upside with the stock, putting The Warehouse down as one of its 2005 picks.

"Well and truly beaten up by the market and core operations undervalued. New management will make a difference," ASB Securities said.

Another popular 2004 pick, Telecom, returned a favourable 24.3 per cent. As the NZSX-50 Gross benchmark index rose about the same amount, no surprise given Telecom makes up over a quarter of the index, the choice was solid rather than record breaking.