KEY POINTS:
Aeroplane maker Boeing believes passenger growth in the aviation industry will continue at 4 per cent a year despite tough conditions caused by the rising price of oil.
Boeing's Sydney based director of communications Ken Morton spoke at the tourism industry conference about its 20 year predictions for
the industry.
"Some of my comments might seem incongruous in terms of the fuel price. But we take a long term view on the market."
Morton said the oil price was just the latest challenge for an industry which had survived the 1991 Gulf War, 1997 Asian meltdown, 9/11 World Trade Centre attack and Sars in 2003.
"The industry is very resilient. We think that airline passenger numbers will grow around 4 per cent per year."
And it is the Asia-Pacific region where Boeing predicts the most growth will be, driven by the emerging markets of China and India, as well as the Middle East.
"China has experienced double-digit growth air travel in the last few years. In less than 10 years the Asia-Pacific region could easily be the largest area of air travel. China alone has 40 airports under construction at the moment."
By 2027 Boeing believe 40 per cent of the world's air travel will be to, from or within the Asia-Pacific region. "It's a major shift in power."
Morton said its expectations were that North America's share of the market would drop from around 27 per cent to around 15 per cent.
Boeing is predicting around US$3.2 trillion ($4.41 trillion) worth of new aircraft will be needed over the need 20 years of which US$1.15 billion will come from the Asia-Pacific region.
Of the 9200 new aircraft needed by the region, only 610 will go to the Oceanic region including New Zealand, Australia and the Pacific Islands.
"China is where much of the growth will come from. The number of people travelling by air in China has doubled since 2000. At the same time the airline fleet has doubled."
But there are also concerns infrastructure and pilot numbers won't keep up.
India is another major growth area because of its rising number of wealthy middle class citizens now able to afford air travel. Britain recently announced the number of flights to India per week would increase from 34 to 112.
The Middle East is also seen as a big area of growth because it is close to many of the world's key population areas. While fuel was a huge challenge to the industry at the moment, Morton urged conference attendees to look beyond it.
"This is a trying time for the aviation industry, but fuel prices are only the most recent hurdle. Air travel is, and will continue to be, a highly valued part of the social and economic fabric of our world."
