Air NZ's golden run comes to an end with first half earnings drop

Air NZ chief executive Christopher Luxon. Photo / File

Air New Zealand's golden run of strong earnings growth came to an end today when the national flag carrier reported a 34 per cent drop in net profit to $152 million, driven mostly by higher fuel costs.

While the result was slightly lower than market expectations, Air NZ said it was sticking with its annual pre-tax earnings forecast of $340m to $400m for the year to June.

The company said operating revenue growth of 7.1 per cent in the half was more than offset by a 28 per cent increase in fuel prices and increased operational costs.

Last year the company announced pre-tax earnings of $540m - the second highest profit in its history.

The national flag carrier announced an unchanged dividend of 11c a share and said it was confident of maintaining the full year dividend.

"We've been growing the business in the order of the high single digits for a number of years now, and all we are talking about is moving our (revenue) growth down to 4 per cent from 6 per cent," chief executive Christopher Luxon told the Herald.

"Four per cent growth in an economy that is growing by 2 per cent is pretty impressive."

Luxon said the 30-year outlook for tourism in New Zealand was still positive.

"What we are seeing now is a moderation of growth," he said.

Andy Bowley, head of research at Forsyth Barr, said Air NZ was committed to delivering a sustainable dividend "and in light of pressure on earnings that's quite an important message".

Looking ahead, Bowley said the earnings guidance for the year was achievable provided "world does not fall apart, competition does not intensify, and oil prices do not rise materially".

"But this is an airline, and it's therefore subject to a fair degree of volatility in some of the key inputs," Bowley said.

The company had enjoyed strong earnings growth, driven by the tourism boom, in recent years.

"They have had a number of tailwinds and there is a number of headwinds in place at the moment, so it therefore requires a different tactical response," he said.

Air NZ this week announced a new, sharply lower pricing schedule, to stimulate demand in the domestic market.

Bowley said he did not expect the company to take a hit from its new schedule, based on its revenue per available seat-kilometre (RASK) projections.

Luxon said the lower rate of growth was bringing New Zealand more in-line with other developed markets.

"Accordingly, the airline will be reviewing its network, fleet and cost base to reflect the new environment," he said in a statement.

The airline's review of its network, fleet and cost base is progressing well and an update is expected by the end of next month.

The 2019 pre-tax projection assumes an average jet fuel price of US$75 per barrel for the second half of the financial year.

The airline's review of its network, fleet and cost base was progressing well and an update is expected by the end of next month.

Mark Lister, head of private wealth research at Craigs Investment Partners, said the result was on the soft side.

Lister said "you could drive a truck through" the range for the year, and that he expected the final result to come in at the lower end of the range.

"They are coming off a very buoyant period and some of those tailwinds that they have enjoyed over the last few years have moderated," he said.

The previous guidance for the year was for pre-tax earnings of $425m to $525m.

Air NZ's shares closed 9 cents, or 3.5 per cent, down at $2.47.