Why Zespri's new US market could boost kiwifruit offering to China

Zespri has new access to US supermarkets for its kiwifruit. Photo / Supplied

A change in Zespri's importing status in the US offers more potential for market growth than just providing Americans with better quality kiwifruit, says Craigs Investment Partners.

Research analyst David Harris said with Zespri now accepted by the US as a direct importer, sales volume growth there would help support increased exports to China.

That's because if the US market is successful for Zespri's best-seller SunGold, it will grow the whole Zespri export pie, Harris said.

"Because Zespri restricts fruit volume to Greater China - China, Hong Kong and Taiwan - to 30 per cent of total volume, volume growth in the US will help to support increased exports to China.

"The US is a big growth opportunity. When Americans think of kiwifruit, they think Chilean fruit, which is probably not up to the same quality."

Zespri was now an importer of record to the US, which means it can import fruit directly.

In the past the Mount Maunganui-headquartered marketer has sent most fruit for the US to service company Oppenheimer, which markets and distributes it.

Harris said while Oppenheimer will still land the product, store it and undertake services for Zespri in the US, Zespri can now go direct to large US supermarket chains like Costco and Walmart with up to 30 per cent of its US-bound fruit.

To gear up for direct imports, Zespri had changed its management in North America and put facilities in place to land the fruit and pack it, Harris said.

Being able to sell directly to large supermarket chains was the key to maximising Zespri's US market potential, he said.

Meanwhile, all industry eyes will be on the result next week of a Zespri producer vote which seeks grower approval to increase planted hectares of SunGold in overseas countries, excluding Chile and China, by up to 10,000 additional hectares.

Zespri has also asked for grower approval to increase planted hectares of any new variety by up to 1000 additional hectares.

Seeking the approval is in line with Zespri's effort to keep its brand on the world's shelves 12 months of the year. Kiwifruit is a seasonal crop and New Zealand has an off-season from January to May. The company already has grower clearance for 5000ha offshore growing. SunGold is produced under licence in Italy, France, Korea and Japan, with pre-commercial trial sites in Greece and the US.

Harris said the proposed extension of offshore growing "could add a lot of value to the industry".

Zespri had forecast non-New Zealand SunGold to deliver 35 million trays when the currently approved 5000ha were in full production. Craigs had a more conservative estimate of 30m trays by 2031 harvest.

"If the producer vote is successful, Zespri is forecasting non-NZ supply to Zespri could increase to 70-106m trays by 2030 harvest. This will impact Zespri's revenue in two ways - first by increasing sales of non-NZ grown kiwifruit through higher volumes and secondly, new cultivars will see a boost to revenue through increased royalty income."

Expansion of offshore growing could maximise Zespri's plant variety rights royalty stream from SunGold which runs to 2038 in New Zealand (2030 in the US).

Royalty income to Zespri in FY22 was $45.3m, up 15.3 per cent on the prior year, Harris said.

Royalty income had grown strongly as New Zealand and offshore-grown volumes of SunGold had increased.

Craigs expected the royalty income to continue growing until FY39, when it expected a significant drop, assuming there was not another pool of plant variety rights coming through in critical mass.

Zespri also has the right to sell plant variety licences to growers, the most notable being SunGold, and more recently, the commercialised RubyRed.

Harris noted that with less than 50 per cent of growers currently shareholders (only New Zealand growers can be shareholders), Zespri could face expansion limitations if it could not successfully pass producer votes.

Zespri told the Herald 48 per cent of growers were currently shareholders.