Earlier this year, many North Island producers were also hit by significant adverse weather events, with many producers in the cyclone-affected regions still on the road to recovery.
“We are seeing the effects of recent challenges on our largest sectors, including dairy, red meat and wool, and forestry, with export revenue expected to fall this year,” Smith said.
“However, revenue growth for other significant sectors such as horticulture, seafood and arable is set to limit the overall fall in export revenues in 2023/24.”
MPI’s report said there had been ongoing demand for New Zealand’s top-quality seafood, such as rock lobster.
Seafood export revenue was forecast to reach $2.3b this year, up 8 per cent on the previous year.
Global dairy prices have bounced back by about 12 per cent from their lows in mid-August, but overall revenue is expected to dip 7 per cent to $24.1b in the June 2024 year, reflecting weakened demand and an expected decline in domestic milk production because of fewer cows and warmer weather from El Nino, the report said.
Export revenue from horticulture products is expected to reduce 1 per cent to $7b in the year to June 2024 year.
Wine and cherry exports were all forecast to grow on the previous year, with overall horticulture export revenue expected to build back to a record forecast of $8.2b in the year to June 30, 2025.
New Zealand’s red meat and wool exports are expected to dip 5 per cent to $11.6b due to weaker demand and prices in key markets driven by cost of living pressures globally.
Smith concluded that while there were temporary dips in some sectors, the outlook was positive.
Jamie Gray is an Auckland-based journalist, covering the financial markets and the primary sector. He joined the Herald in 2011.
