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Home / Business / Companies / Agribusiness

Mark Lister: Australia pinched as China slows

By Mark Lister
NZ Herald·
23 Jul, 2013 05:30 PM6 mins to read

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The mining boom may have peaked but it's far from the end of the road for copper and iron ore miners. Photo / Grant Bradley

The mining boom may have peaked but it's far from the end of the road for copper and iron ore miners. Photo / Grant Bradley

Opinion
Silver lining for some of the non-mining cities and industries as interest rates and currency decline.

Is it the end of the road for the lucky country? For many years we have looked across the ditch to Australia with envy.

Blessed with a seemingly endless supply of minerals, Australia had a bulletproof economy and a booming employment market. While the rest of us were feeling the effects of the global financial crisis a few years ago, Australia avoided a recession completely and was the only developed economy to do so.

Today, things don't look quite so rosy.

Unemployment is rising, business confidence is at its lowest level in four years and economic growth forecasts are being rapidly revised downward.

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Back in August last year, the Reserve Bank of Australia was forecasting growth in 2013 of 3 per cent, while today this has been pared back to 2.5 per cent.

Compare this with New Zealand, where our own central bank has been ratcheting up economic forecasts as things get better.

In June 2012, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand was expecting growth of just 1.5 per cent this year. By December it had revised this up to 2.8 per cent and last month the RBNZ tweaked it up a little further to 3.3 per cent.

Australia's reliance on China and its insatiable demand for minerals are one key reason for its recent difficulties, with more than 30 per cent of Australia's exports going to China.

China's economic growth has slowed from well over 10 per cent annually to about 7.5 per cent today. While this will be the slowest year of growth in about 20 years, by world standards it is still a phenomenal growth rate.

Twenty years ago China represented just 2.5 per cent of the world economy, whereas today it accounts for 12.2 per cent and in five years it is estimated to be over 15 per cent. So we must remember that as each year passes the base from which China is growing is that much larger.

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However, China's growth rate is moderating to a more sustainable level and, more importantly, its mix of growth is changing.

Having been driven over recent decades by a construction boom and significant infrastructure building, China's economy is changing into one based more around domestic consumption.

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Consumer spending represents about 70 per cent of the economy in most developed nations, whereas in China it is only about half this size. In time, it will begin to look more like other developed nations.

This trend is great for countries like New Zealand who export predominantly food or consumer products to China, but for Australia, it means the best days of the resources boom have passed.

Australia's Treasurer recently noted the past decade had been abnormally strong for the mining sector and that the challenge over the next few years was a return to "something more normal".

While New Zealand is very well positioned with China as an export partner, we are also very reliant on Australia.

Australia took 18.5 per cent of our export products in the first half of 2013, many of our largest companies have significant operations there and many people own Australian shares, either directly or through KiwiSaver.

First, the mining boom may have peaked but it's far from the end of the road for iron ore and copper miners. There is still strong demand for Australia's minerals across the world in many places.

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The changing Chinese landscape means prices will be lower, volume growth more subdued and some of the less economically viable mining projects will be shelved.

There is also a silver lining in all this for some of Australia's non-mining cities and industries, mainly because in recent years the mining boom has kept interest rates and the Australian dollar very high.

Having peaked above US$1.10 two years ago, the Australian dollar has collapsed in recent months to just above US90c.

This will prove to be a huge boost for many sectors including tourism operators, manufacturers and exporters.

Similarly, two years ago the Australian cash rate was 4.75 per cent, almost more than double that of New Zealand.

Our cash rate fell to current levels back in 2009, but Australian interest rates continued to rise for another two years after that as the mining boom continued.

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That was fine for mining services contractors in Perth, but it added pressure to the rest of the country and kept the currency at unsustainably high levels.

The cash rate has since been slashed aggressively to 2.75 per cent and many economists expect it to be cut even further.

These two things alone - a drastically reduced currency and much lower interest rates - will be a blessing for many companies and workers in the non-mining regions, Victoria and New South Wales in particular. It will also soften the impact of falling commodity prices.

This may be a double-edged sword for New Zealand, as our currency will likely rise further against the Australian dollar amid this shift. We are currently sitting at over A86c, substantially higher than a year ago but only slightly above the average of the past 20 years of A84c.

In 2005 we reached more than A$95c, so a move higher is certainly not out of the question again if current trends continue. Finally, a bright spot on the Australian horizon might be the upcoming election.

There is a good chance of a change of Government come September, with Robbie Deans about the only person less popular than recent political leadership.

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This should boost business and consumer sentiment, as many businesses have delayed investment and hiring decisions, preferring to wait for more political certainty.

Despite the changing face of the economy, the Australian sharemarket remains an important investment destination for New Zealanders.

There are many excellent companies in the region and there are certainly a few industries that will see the changes taking place as a tailwind, rather than an obstacle.

Australia still has healthy long-term prospects, but the transition away from the mining sector may mean a few challenges along the way as other industries take time to pick up the slack.

Mark Lister is Head of Private Wealth Research at Craigs Investment Partners. His disclosure statement is available free of charge under his profile on www.craigsip.com. This column is general in nature and should not be regarded as specific investment advice.

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