KEY POINTS:
The wine industry's grape harvest is heading for another new record in 2007 but it is now expected to undershoot earlier expectations by as much as 30,000 tonnes or 13 per cent.
That shortfall will restrict the ability of winemakers to keep pace with booming growth in export
demand, currently running at about 30 per cent a year.
Industry body New Zealand Winegrowers said yesterday the lower forecast grape harvest followed spring frosts in some areas and a cool December, which affected vine flowering.
Chief executive Philip Gregan said a harvest of 220,000-plus tonnes had been expected, but a range of 190,000-210,000 tonnes was now forecast, compared with last year's record 185,000 tonnes.
That points to a production increase of between 2.7 and 13.5 per cent on a total grape-producing area 9 per cent bigger, at around 24,000 hectares.
Neill Culley, owner of Waiheke Island's Cable Bay Vineyard, said his production per hectare was down on what had been expected for 2007. But he said he still had more grapes because of extra planting.
On whether his yield undershoot would cause him problems, he said: "I think I'll concentrate on servicing existing markets rather than developing new ones."
Gregan said a number of other companies had also signalled they would supply less than they had hoped.
"They're going to do their best to supply the markets that they can but they're definitely going to fit their promotional programme into the wines that they know they've got."
Gregan said he had not heard of any wineries expecting financial problems as a result of the undershoot.
He also did not believe a lower-than-expected harvest would affect the reputation of New Zealand wineries, as supply constraint had been a long-standing issue.
"Despite all the talk that you hear about industry gluts, that's not the issue [New Zealand] has faced. It's supply constraint."
But he said the weather last month had been "ideal" and the forecast for March was encouraging. "Recent weather has been perfect with fine, warm days setting the scene for an excellent vintage in all regions."
However, Gregan warned celebrations about this year's anticipated higher production could only start once grapes were finally harvested and the vintage total was known.
Grape squeeze
2007 grape harvest. Source: NZ Winegrowers
* Earlier predictions 220,000-plus tonnes
* Updated forecast 190,000-210,000 tonnes