Scientists say drought-stricken farmers in Australia's southeast - including in key areas for growing grain and producing milk - face the prospect of spring rainfall 40 per cent below the annual average.
Such a revival of the drought which has gutted Australian farm production in the past couple
of years could have important implications for New Zealand farm exports.
CSIRO scientist Wenju Cai told an agri-climate change conference in Sydney last week that this year's rainfall in the country's southeast should be almost the same as in 1967, when spring rains were 40 per cent below the norm.
This was apparently because of the Indian Ocean dipole, which scientists have recently recognised brings anomalous winds, sea surface temperatures and rainfall throughout the region, and triggers drought in Indonesia and Australia and floods in eastern Africa.
A La Nina event would normally give more rainfall over eastern Australia, but this year's seemed to have been overwhelmed by the influence of the Indian Ocean conditions.
Economists have already revised down winter wheat crop estimates by as much as seven million tonnes, after a lack of follow-up rain after planting.
- NZPA
