A good starting point is to consider the factors that will affect the outcome. They range from global commodity prices, the kiwi/US dollar exchange rate, our ability to increase production and whether we can export more higher-valued goods.
If we focus first on output and prices, the demand side of the equation is not in question. We don't expect any slowdown in the Asian demand for protein as incomes rise. This is a trend across Asia but China, for example, has seen per capita income rise five-fold from $700 10 years ago - and $3500 is still low.
Food and beverage expenditure in China has risen 10-fold from $100 billion 10 years ago.
Hand-in-hand with rising incomes is increasing urbanisation. China's urban population is currently 500 million. Within the timeframe of the Export Double objective, this will have increased by 350 million.
China will have 221 cities whose populations exceed one million persons, compared with Europe's 35. Twenty-three of these cities will have populations each exceeding five million people. The demand side of the equation is therefore not in question.
It is the supply side that we need to think about, and particularly New Zealand's relative position in that global supply response.
We can expect Asia itself to increase supply internally - and it is - but the evidence is that that alone will be insufficient. Arable land and water are in short supply in Asia.
The supply response will come from the food exporting nations, of which New Zealand is, and will continue to be, a significant player.
Of course, here in New Zealand we like to demonstrate our significance in global agricultural trade by quoting our share of traded markets, such as 30 per cent in dairy and 75 per cent in lamb. There is a danger in this, as it causes us to focus on the tip of the iceberg rather than the iceberg's overall size.
What should concern us is how much of the iceberg lies submerged and what will be revealed as the sea state changes. By this I mean what will be the supply response from the food exporting nations that compete with us?
Reading the 2013 OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook it is quite apparent that the US has become and will continue to be a serious export player.
From the OECD-FAO projections, while US dairy export growth is expected to be strong across the board in percentage terms, it is in skim milk powder that the US is expected to outstrip New Zealand in absolute volumes.
In contrast, New Zealand's export dominance in the dairy markets is expected to remain in whole milk powder. From an import perspective, both product lines are Chinese stories.
One factor to keep an eye on, in respect of US production, is the effect that the recently introduced Dairy Margin Protection Programme might have on US production.
Under this programme, US dairy producers can buy insurance to protect the margin between the milk price and feed costs, which, as the OECD-FAO says, has the potential to ensure profitability and encourage expanded production.
Preliminary research from Missouri University suggests the impact of the programme is to have only small supply effects on average, although, not unsurprisingly, the effects could be significant in periods of depressed margins.
The other potentially large swing producer is the EU, especially with quotas coming off next year.
The EU is, of course, a massive market in its own right, and it is also a comparatively high-cost producer. The removal of quotas is certainly expected to accelerate production shifts within the EU but the net effect on global dairy trade markets at this point remains uncertain.
If we could observe the global demand and supply curves that exist now, they would look markedly different from those of a decade ago. The entry of China into the global market has undoubtedly shifted the demand curve to the right, but higher real cost structures brought about by higher grain, oilseed and energy costs have also caused the global supply curve to move up.
As we observe both higher levels of production and higher real prices, it would seem that the demand effect has outstripped the cost effect.
The question remains - will the upward rise in real prices continue? The OECD-FAO outlook thinks not. In fact, over the next decade, they predict steady or modestly declining real prices, albeit above those that prevailed before 2008.
On the other hand, they expect nominal prices to rise progressively but, supply shocks aside, rising no more than peak prices already observed.
They could be wrong of course, forecasts usually are - like when it was projected that the world would run out of oil by 1945.
So, what do we need to remember?
The China income and protein story is indisputable. The issue is that everyone wants a slice of the action. New Zealand is a comparatively small producer on a global scale. There is incentive for the developing world to substantially increase dairy productivity, and off large production bases, but the fact remains that arable land and water are in short supply throughout the food deficit regions of Asia.
There is a continued need for New Zealand to keep its eye on the competition.
While commodity prices remain high, we can expect the exchange rate to remain high. At its core, New Zealand is a commodity producer, and although genuine value-adding strategies will arise and be exploited, they are unlikely to move the dial on our total export receipts. Exporters need to be vigilant that they are indeed adding value and not just layering on costs.
Fran O'Sullivan will be back next week.
