Stock Takes: NZX's Fang stocks long in the tooth?

Fisher and Paykel Healthcare is expected to receive a boost from index-tracking investors if it is bought into MSCI global index next month. Photo/Dean Purcell.

The S&P/NZX 50 Index continues to reach new highs, however, one analyst has suggested it's not all it is cracked up to be.

Salt Fund Management's Matt Goodson says from the outside it appears New Zealand's market is in the midst of a raging bull market.

But look under the hood and most of the gains in the index are being driven by the FARX stocks - Fisher & Paykel Healthcare, A2 Milk, Ryman Healthcare and Xero.

"Leadership of the market has been quite narrow," says Goodson pointing to other major stocks like Spark and Auckland Airport which have not performed as well.

Spark shares hit $3.94 back in July but have since fallen to around $3.65, and while Auckland Airport was trading at $7.35 back in early March it has now shed more than a dollar.

One of the FARX's may also be about to get a major boost.

There is talk that Fisher & Paykel Healthcare may be included in the next review of the MSCI global index in November.

If it is included in the index the investment funds who track the index will take up a stake in the company.

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare shares closed down 16c yesterday at $12.83.

It is unclear whether Contact Energy may fall out of the index or whether both will be allowed to stay. Contact Energy shares hit $5.71 in mid August but have wobbled around since then. Yesterday they closed on $5.55.

Missing out
This week's release of the annual Technology Investment Network (TIN) report is a reminder of what investors are potentially missing out on: Fisher & Paykel Appliances, which was de-listed from the NZX in 2012 after a full take-over by Chinese appliance giant Haier, now has a higher revenue than when it was listed.

F&P Appliances dropped down the TIN report to second place, although its revenue at $1.15 billion is higher than the $1.12 billion group operating revenue recorded in 2011, and that included the finance division which has since been sold off.

F&P Appliances' revenue remains higher than F&P Healthcare and Xero who were respectively ranked third and fourth on this year's list.

Appliances moved much of its manufacturing operations overseas to remain competitive and was then hit by the global financial crisis. Struggling to support the debt costs linked to its overseas move the company was helped out by Haier taking a 20 per cent cornerstone stake.

Unfortunately the share price continued to slip making it an attractive takeover target for Haier.

If it was still listed today it would potentially be one of our biggest companies on the NZX.

A day of two halves
It's becoming more noticeable that the New Zealand sharemarket is becoming a day of two halves with very light trade in the morning followed by an increase in the afternoon and a burst before closing.

Goodson reckons there are two factors driving this - firstly the time-zone difference means Australian and Asian investors come into action later in the day.

"Clearly the major price moves would appear to be driven by international investors at the moment." International investors have a much bigger impact than in the past.

Last year a report by Forsyth Barr pointed to 46 per cent of the "free float" being owned by offshore investors. That was 11 per cent higher than the 10-year average.

Goodson believes the other factor is the growth in exchange traded funds (ETFs) - listed funds which track a group of assets often defined by an index like the NZX 50.

The funds own a proportion of each of the companies in an index depending on their size and liquidity.

Goodson said quite a lot of the trading from ETFs came through at the end of the day which was resulting in some big price moves.