Coming, ready or nyet

By Carroll du Chateau

Sitting among the corporate jets at Auckland International Airport when they arrive next week will be something of a cuckoo in the nest. Huge, ungainly, the Russian Aeroflot Ilyushin will no doubt be dripping a little fuel on the newly-washed tarmac. And that's after the Rolls-Royce engines were fitted.

The Russian delegation itself will probably echo its plane - huge (despite the fact that they were an associate member, the Russian delegation to Kuala Lumpur was in the top five), proud, not quite up to speed and scrambling to catch up.

This is Russia's first appearance as a full member of Apec. As a closed economy until the "big bang" reforms of 1992, followed by the catastrophic boom/bust cycle of an economy emerging from communism, Russia has massive internal problems. For these guys free trade is a very new concept.

And, say the experts, Russia is in no shape to make waves in Auckland - at an official level at least.

Says Dr Rouben Azizian, Russian expert at Auckland University's political studies department: "Russia has big business, but also a lack of understanding of the culture, the workings and the mechanics of Apec ..."

But while the Russians may well sit quietly during the official sessions, people like Azizian predict it will be a different story late at night when they bring out the vodka. At this level they're expected to be masters - working hard, drinking even harder, making connections, doing deals, cashing in royally on this opportunity to mix with the decision-makers of the Pacific Rim.

The Russian delegation is expected to be led by the country's latest Prime Minister, Vladimir Putin, taking a break from political turmoil at home.

To ferry their leader around town, the Russians may even fly in some of their distinctive Zillimos to show off in the motorcades.

Says Azizian: "I see signs from Russia that the real ambition for Apec is to meet other leaders and discuss other issues ... and definitely to advance their political and military wishes."

Dr Anatole Bogatski, a Moscow-based Foreign Affairs staffer between 1991 and 1994, agrees. "This is all about the Russians selling themselves, selling the new Russia. And arms and cheap minerals are probably the best value exports they have to offer."

Anna Shkuropat, professor of international economics at Vladivostok University, is quite unashamed about the strategy: "Russia has wanted to join every available forum for integration or co-operation within the Asia-Pacific region, whether economic, political or security-related."

Right now Russia is on the waiting list for the World Trade Organisation, and is chafing to have its membership of the G8 group of nations - which it currently has only at the political level - upgraded to include full membership at the economic level as well.

Which is very understandable. Azizian puts the Russian Far East's urgency in perspective: "The region was cast adrift by the rest of Russia. They were told: don't expect subsidies and don't count on our help any more."

Hardly surprising that today the Russian Far East considers itself more a part of the Asia-Pacific Rim than of far-distant European Russia 9000km away.

But, Azizian stresses, the keenness to participate does not mean that Russia is ready for Apec - or that Apec is ready for Russia. "Membership requires ministers to be prepared in the Apec process but at the moment most of them haven't even been involved in foreign affairs - it's all very new."

Against this background it is no surprise that even Shurkopat admits "the learning process (about Apec) has only just begun ..."

Perhaps the miracle is that Russia has produced its first Individual Action Plan, an annual requirement of Apec membership designed to establish transparency, peer review and ultimately meant to ensure that members work towards Apec's underpinning goal of free and open trade and investment by 2020.

Back home of course, with the economy shrinking, inflation very high, huge problems in collecting taxes, and corruption in full swing, the subtleties of free trade must seem part of a very different world. This is a country where many people working for the still-enormous public service have not been paid for a year or more, where ships attempting to dock at Vladivostok are approached by a man who demands $US5000 in cash. Same price whether it's legitimate cargo, drugs or contraband. And no, he's not the harbour master.

Says Bogatski: "when local law and order breaks down, business tends to regulate itself, so you have armies defending their territories. I'm not talking tank kind of armies, I'm talking thugs."

So what is Russia doing at Apec? Why is the Aeroflot jet here at all? "Nukes," says Bogatski. "Nukes! And remember the nukes haven't been disarmed. Russia's not a super power but it's a nuclear power, that's for sure ..."

"It's like giving Russia a bond to stop it jeopardising Nato enlargement ... the other theory is that, if you have Russia in you can begin to engage Russian officials, decision makers and business people in the debate about globalisation. It's all part of barriers coming down and Russia being part of the global economy - in other words, getting rid of the black holes in the global economy."