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Home / Business

China Business: Feeding fierce hunger for trade

By David Green
NZ Herald·
29 Apr, 2015 05:00 PM5 mins to read

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Managing Director Institutional, ANZ New Zealand, and Executive Board Member of the New Zealand China Council, David Green.

Managing Director Institutional, ANZ New Zealand, and Executive Board Member of the New Zealand China Council, David Green.

New Zealand is leading the world in relations with China, presenting this country with a massive growth opportunity - if it can position itself to maintain its lead, writes David Green.

Few countries have been as quick as New Zealand to embrace the opportunities presented by the rise of China as a world power.

Politically and economically, New Zealand has been a leader in recognising China's global status. Successive governments have advanced our relationship with Beijing - culminating in New Zealand being the first OECD country to sign a comprehensive Free Trade Agreement with China in 2008.

China has since grown to become New Zealand's largest trading partner and is a key market for many of our major export industries, such as dairy, forestry, meat, seafood and wool.

It is also a major source of migrants, students and tourists to New Zealand, and an increasingly important part of New Zealand's make-up and consciousness as a nation.

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Chinese New Zealanders are a valuable part of our society, while maintaining close cultural and business links with China - an advantage supporting business connectivity with Asia.

A number of New Zealand-based companies are also well established in China, showing the way for others seeking to better understand it as a country and as a market.

New Zealand joined a privileged few nations last year with an agreement with China allowing banks to directly trade the two national currencies.

This deal carries with it the potential to further grow trade and investment flows.

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The arrangement saw ANZ, as part of a select group of banks, being granted a market-maker licence for direct RMB/NZD trading by the People's Bank of China, and we have seen first-hand how it has helped lift the confidence of companies in New Zealand about doing business in China.

Though progress to date has been great, there is enormous potential to further grow the economic benefits of our relationship with China and the other growth markets of Asia.

Rapid urbanisation in those markets, along with rising wealth and development of the Asian financial system are set to lift the opportunities to another level - if this country can position itself to grasp them.

As the growth economies of Asia develop and modernise, they are fuelling a vast migration to cities.

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At around 700 million, China's urban population now outnumbers rural dwellers for the first time, and an estimated 200 million more will move to cities in the next 20 years.

The rewards will not just fall into our lap; other countries are chasing them too. The study points to significant barriers to be overcome at every step of the supply chain.

In cities, consumers enjoy rising spending power and increasingly demand food that is safe, of good quality and convenient.

Many are turning to a diet rich in protein and vitamins, including seafood, red meat and dairy products, along with fresh fruit and vegetables.

In other words, demand is soaring for the types of food and beverages New Zealand produces.

A subset of this demand, which exceeds New Zealand's production capacity many times over, is from a growing category of customers that are willing to pay an additional premium for products that originate from trusted regions, are of high quality and meet market expectations around practices and standards.

A major study commissioned by ANZ estimated that, given these developments, New Zealand could capture up to $1.3 trillion more in agricultural exports between now and 2050.

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But the rewards will not just fall into our lap; other countries are chasing them too. The study points to significant barriers to be overcome at every step of the supply chain.

Key among these is the ability to source capital. Across the sector the capital gap is immense - a further NZ$210 billion will be needed to enable production growth and NZ$130 billion to support turnover in farm ownership.

Farmers cannot possibly raise all the capital needed to fully realise the opportunity.

But, again, developments playing out in Asia offer new promise.

ANZ economists point to a further wave of economic growth in our region, underpinned by a potential "revolution" in the development of Asian financial markets.

In their report, Caged Tiger: The Transformation of the Asian Financial System, they tipped this revolution to drive up Asia's share of global economic output from 17 per cent two decades ago to 35 per cent by 2030, and over half by the middle of this century.

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In China's case, its Government has recognised the urgency of reform and is fast-tracking financial liberalisation and the opening up of the domestic financial system to international capital flows. RMB convertibility plays an important role in this.

If China continues to pursue these reforms, ANZ forecasts that its financial system will be more than twice as big as the US system by 2030.

By the middle of this century China will account for half of Asia's financial assets. Shanghai will rival New York as a global financial centre and RMB will dominate in Asia as a regional funding currency and a genuine rival to the US dollar as a global reserve currency.

For the wider region, including New Zealand, this rise of Asia as a financial power points to a dramatic increase in cross-border investment, a growing supply of both equity and debt assets and the emergence of a new investor base.

Already we see significant pools of funds accumulating across Asia's rising economies. New Zealand is well-placed to secure capital from those growing markets, which understand our strengths and potential through their growing trade connections with us.

To fully realise the opportunities this capital could release - in terms of jobs, productivity and growth - New Zealand needs to be clear on where we want to encourage and direct funding, and provide consistent signals to attract investment.

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• David Green is Managing Director Institutional, ANZ New Zealand, and an Executive Board Member of the New Zealand China Council.

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