Challenge to farms in new century

By Philippa Stevenson

Between the lines


If ever there was room for the faint-hearted in the agricultural sector, it will not be in 2000.

Challenges are going to be as numerous as hairs on a dog's back and twice as curly.

The slow shift away from commodity products, like bulk butter, cheddar, whole milk powder, raw wool, logs, pulp and wood chips, will have to quicken.

Commodity prices are driven by conditions in a small number of foreign markets in which New Zealand is not an important supplier, despite being a significant exporter of agricultural products.

The poor cannot pay for our produce; the rich do not want it. For the wealthy, food and fibre are ready-made fashion items presented by chefs, restaurant and supermarket chains or clothing designers. Farmers and manufacturers are part of a long chain and can only hope to grab a few valuable links.

They will need to be technically able, responsive to market signals, flexible and agile.

Trade negotiations will be as difficult as ever in 2000. The desire by governments, including our own, to bring in new considerations such as environmental and labour standards will raise the hurdle.

Producers, processors and exporters will need to put greater emphasis on health and quality. What importing countries may sacrifice in lower tariff barriers, they will seek to make up for with more stringent requirements. As well, public perceptions of biotechnology will be shaping what is acceptable to research, grow, market and eat.

Systems and documentation tracing of every input and ingredient will become essential.

As a result, processing and marketing systems will have to be well-organised and efficient to deliver a consistent product year round.

Strong, distinctive branding will be needed so customers can be drawn back time and time again.

Meanwhile, farmers will continue to wrestle with low returns on capital and falling land values. Lower land prices will enable much-needed new blood to enter the industry, while also offsetting poor returns, but they will be an unwelcome threat to the investment of existing farmers.

Their payoff may lie in the groundwork they have already done in developing better performing, genetically superior cows, sheep, vines and trees.

It is increasingly likely that the building blocks of such live resources - genes - will be the foundations of new products and industries.

A start has been made with nutriceuticals from milk proteins and pharmaceuticals from transgenic sheep and cattle.

The new century's key challenge will be to ride the waves of technology as successfully as we rode those of the last, such as refrigeration and milk powder manufacture.