Mood of the boardroom: Sell to Kiwis to reduce national debt

Neil Paviour-Smith, CEO of Forsyth Barr. Photo / Supplied

The Crown has myriad properties and assets and the Government should consider making some of them available for private investment to help reduce the national debt, says Neil Paviour-Smith, CEO of financial services firm Forsyth Barr.

"The sole focus seems to be simply on debt to GDP, but Crown net worth is significantly positive and deserves to be considered. The Crown has an enormous portfolio of assets," he says.The Treasury's Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Update indicated net core Crown debt is forecast to peak at 55.3 per cent of gross domestic product in the 2024 financial year compared with 53.6 per cent outlined in the May in the Budget. As a result, net debt in dollar terms is expected to rise by $143 billion to $201 billion.

Paviour-Smith said one way of addressing the growing amount of debt is making some of the assets available for savers and investors who are struggling to find investments that have a reasonable yield.

He suggested health properties could be made available for private investment. "I'm not talking about privatising the health sector and selling hospitals. The properties that support the hospital operations could be freed up — the admin block, the outpatient blocks and other buildings.

"They would provide a very dependable yield that would be attractive to investors, and the investment could help with the upkeep of hospitals to help avoid issues like Middlemore. A whole range of properties and other Crown assets can be made available — investors are hungry for a place to channel their investments. Money is pouring into housing and the stockmarket.

"The mixed ownership model has highlighted how it can be done, keeping majority Crown ownership."

Paviour-Smith questioned whether the NZ Super Fund, which holds $47.5b, should continue. "It is worth debating whether to borrow money to invest in the fund despite the Crown's obligation to superannuation. The trade-off is a higher level of debt on the Crown's balance sheet. "At a personal level, if you found yourself in difficulty, out of work, borrowing money to fund living expenses and trying to pay off the mortgage, would you continue to own your holiday house and boat? "Many people would sell them to reduce debt and consolidate."

Paviour-Smith said the Government and Opposition were trying to "out-infrastructure each other" with policies. This sounds good, but business and the public were keen to see investment accelerated and projects delivered. "New Zealand doesn't have the capacity to deliver all that is promised straight away — we should develop a prioritised, integrated plan.

"International parties would come to New Zealand to help accelerate the national infrastructure programme if they could see a carefully thought-out five to 10 year plan. If we are spending $30-40b over that period, it would be great to know how much is going to be spent each year and on what.

"It doesn't mean the plan is locked in place — it can be continually reviewed, but it would have the effect of taking away the political machinations and the lack of progress.

"The Labour Party has had to balance the challenge of having two coalition partners with competing views of what the priorities are. It makes it difficult to set out a clear, long-term pathway — but that could be the role of the Infrastructure Commission or a new Futures Council to solve it."

During the Covid-19 crisis, Paviour-Smith's firm increased staff numbers by about 5 per cent because of the growth in business. "We are on the front foot and there's quite a range of opportunities in our industry.

"We don't hold the view that the tough times will prevail. The factors driving our business haven't changed and people want advice on how to invest in the low interest environment. During the lockdown we took on clients at a faster rate than we have done before. Maybe people had time on their hands and they decided they wanted to do something with their investments and consolidate.

"For good reason people were uncertain. There was significant volatility and in that environment, advice is valuable."

Paviour-Smith said his firm would continue to invest in digital. "We want our clients to connect with their investments anywhere, any time on any device. We build strong relationships around investment advice, and data science is a growing opportunity to provide better outcomes."

He is also hoping, post-Covid, that regulations will be simplified to encourage innovation and growth. "Take the anti-money laundering regulations, which are important.

'But once you are checked, identified and verified by the provider or bank, then why do we burden people with the same process with another financial services provider?

"It's an example of a barrier to change and efficiency in the system. We can be doing things a lot more simply," he said.

Neil Pavior-Smith's top issues

Top 3 issues facing the nation

1. Re-entering the world post-Covid — a different approach is needed: maybe adopt the smart Taiwan-style approach. (New arrivals in Taiwan can quarantine at hotels, Airbnbs or a private home, but are electronically monitored and face steep penalties for breaches).
2. Lack of progress on infrastructure investment — produce an integrated, 10 year rolling, time-lined construction programme to create certainty and enable planning
3. Collapse of large chunks of the economy — particularly tourism and international education — adopt a measured approach involving the private sector in managing border issues and isolation.

Top 3 business priorities

1. Expand the company's base further, taking advantage of opportunities in the financial services sector.
2. Reset regulatory expectations — make processes more simple and strike out inefficiencies to help investment and growth.
3. Digital investment — responding to the evolving needs of customers.