“Most forward-looking activity indicators saw little movement this month.”
Meanwhile, past activity measures showed a very wide range of experiences across different sectors, Zollner said.
Construction and retail reported a significant renewed slump, while agriculture stormed ahead.
“It appears residential builders are giving up on a recovery any time soon, with a sharp drop in construction intentions this month, to the lowest level in a year,” Zollner said.
Employment compared with the same month a year ago was in the red for every sector.
Zollner said retail was shedding jobs fast.
The survey also showed softer inflation signals, with the net percentage of firms expecting to raise their prices and those expecting cost hikes both falling in July.
“We continue to expect that the Reserve Bank’s inflation concerns will gradually pivot from medium-term inflation being too high, to it potentially being too low, paving the way for more monetary easing than is currently envisaged by the Reserve Bank or the market,” Zollner said.
This month, the Reserve Bank opted to keep the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 3.25% but hinted heavily at future cuts.
The central bank said heightened global policy uncertainty and tariffs are expected to reduce global economic growth.
“This will likely slow the pace of New Zealand’s economic recovery, reducing inflation pressures,” it said.
