Export earnings from the meat and wool industry are predicted to rise nearly 5 per cent to $4.8 billion in the 2000-2001 season.
Higher per-tonne export prices for both lamb and beef are supported by good market conditions and a general improvement in world commodity prices, according to the Meat andWool Economic Service.
Executive director Rob Davison said the agency's latest outlook showed there should be continued good farm profitability in the sheep and beef sector, even if the current export-favourable exchange rate eases and growing conditions were not as ideal as they had been this year.
Provisional figures also showed 1999-2000 was a top season for animal productivity, export prices and farm profitability.
"As a result, sheep and beef farm profitability lifted 50 per cent to average $46,400 per farm from the drought-depressed low of the previous two years. This upturn is a sharp contrast to the rest of the 1990s, which was the most difficult, low-profit decade to farm through in 50 years," he said.
For 1999-2000, lamb and sheep weights set new records, export prices for beef and lamb were higher and the tonnages shipped increased.
The outlook for 2000-2001 is for export receipts to keep growing, tempered by a more "normal" season with animal weights down from the 1999-2000 record, but still high.
There is continuing good news on the global beef market, especially with reduced supply in the United States. The New Zealand beef herd has recovered back to 4.97 million, which is a level similar to the pre-drought total in 1996-97.
For lamb, demand at the high-priced, further-processed end of the market is expected to remain strong.
Mr Davison said the underlying factors that had increased productivity - such as the trend to feed fewer stock well, use increased fertiliser, and the market-led incentive to finish lambs and cattle at heavier weights - were likely to continue.
