Beef and sheep farmers can look forward to a 6 per cent increase in gross incomes next year, according to research by the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry.
MAF released its annual monitoring review yesterday, examining the production and financial status of farms in terms of cash income andexpenditure.
Confidence among beef and lamb farmers was the highest, the review found. The forecast income increase was driven by high prices and a long-term downward trend in the dollar, said MAF senior policy analyst Chris Ward.
Dairy farmers were quietly optimistic about the upcoming season.
Most are expecting further production increases next season to offset a predicted drop in payout from Fonterra. This should see gross dairy farm revenues dropping by just 1 per cent, the report said.
Last season dairy farm gross income increased by 18 per cent nationwide. Despite an improved payout from Fonterra, 57 out of 100 dairy farms surveyed recorded a disposable income deficit.
The horticulture sector is about to experience rationalisation with small growers leaving the industry. Remaining growers are increasing their land holdings.
The kiwifruit and wine industries have difficult selling seasons ahead, due to big production increases.
The value of horticultural exports decreased by 1 per cent in the year to March 2003.
Better times are predicted for the arable sector after tough weather last season saw some farmers' incomes suffering six-figure reductions. Following a mild autumn, strong global grain prices and a good outlook for other farming sectors that purchase seeds and feed, the outlook was generally positive, said senior policy analyst Murray Doak.
Deer farmers face the most challenging conditions of any sector following price slumps for venison and velvet. This has resulted in a reduction in the national deer herd.
Next year's outlook is only marginally better, the report said.
