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Home / Business

Avocado prices could spike thanks to a short season and low yield

By Tess Nichol
Reporter·NZ Herald·
30 Oct, 2017 10:34 PM3 mins to read

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Avocado prices may spike later in the season thanks to a low yield this year. Photo / File

Avocado prices may spike later in the season thanks to a low yield this year. Photo / File

Avocado lovers should snap up bargains while they can: this season's yield will be low and that could drive prices up as the season wears on.

Trees fruit yearly, with avocado volumes rising one year, then falling the next.

This year is a low yield year, New Zealand avocado growers association president Jen Scoular confirmed.

Because avocados won't ripen on the tree (they only start to ripen once their stalks have been cut), the industry was able to control harvesting to keep numbers and therefore prices stable.

"One thing we are ensuring in the New Zealand market is we've got a lot better co-ordination between supply and demand," she said.

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Communication between growers meant one supplier knew when another was gearing up for a big harvest, and could cut back their own harvest during that time frame.

The industry was getting better at keeping supply volumes stable, Scoular said.

"There's more planning and transparency of volumes."

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While pausing harvest might seem counterintuitive for a grower relying on selling produce, the benefit of stable pricing was better for the industry.

"If supply and demand across the industry is well co-ordinated then everyone gets a better return," Scoular said.

"Sometimes prices hike and fall because there's a decrease in supply, but for all intents and purposes we'd prefer to have stable pricing."

She would not comment specifically on whether prices would increase, but said despite all efforts to keep numbers consistent, it seemed likely avocados would become scarce later in the season.

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"We don't know how much fruit will be available in January and February and March and April I'm afraid."

Bron Kemp, delivery manager for fruit seller Twisted Citrus, warned the low yield would probably mean a shorter season, with potentially inflated prices later on.

"Gisborne has an off season and this will affect prices, especially later in the season," she said.

Prices have already been steep this year, nearly reaching a record high in June before falling again in July.

The average price of a 200g avocado was $4.52 in June 2017 compared to $3.38 in May, according to figures released by Statistics New Zealand.

And as recently as August, police sent a warning to east coast growers saying thieves had been targeting orchards to re-sell stolen fruit on Facebook.

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The high early-season prices of up to $4 per fruit in supermarkets had coincided with a spike in thefts starting in May.

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