Are pay rises back on the table for Kiwis this year?

More than 75% of Kiwi businesses say an improving economic outlook will weigh positively on salaries. Photo / 123RF

Economic confidence is driving pay optimism among Kiwi businesses, according to a new survey.

Robert Half’s 2026 Salary Guide found 84% of surveyed employers say the economic outlook in New Zealand will positively impact their approach to setting salaries for staff in the next 12 months.

Only 12% said the economic outlook will have a negative impact on salaries for staff, while 3% say there will be no impact.

“While many employers were cautious about stretching offers last year, the combination of a tightening skills market and a shifting economy is creating a more optimistic outlook for 2026,” said Robert Half managing director Megan Alexander.

“Businesses recognise that remaining competitive for top talent requires intentional investment in their workforce.

“Pay rises and offering higher starting salaries are firmly back on the agenda for many organisations.”

The top three factors that affect a company’s willingness to increase a salary offer during candidate negotiations included people management responsibilities (38%); the candidate possesses highly specialised skills (37%); and filling an urgent hiring need (36%).

Alexander said there was a consistent trend in how employers asses value during salary negotiations.

“Companies consider a range of factors, with technical expertise, specialised skills, and strong soft skills often carrying the most weight,” she said.

Of the 250 businesses surveyed, 100% said where salary expectations couldn’t be met, they would be willing to offer alternative perks and benefits.

The most common perk was providing a higher performance bonus (53%), followed by more professional development opportunities (50%); and more flexible work arrangements (48%).

A third of businesses (34%) were prepared to offer more paid time off.

“While competitive pay remains a cornerstone of talent attraction, non‑financial incentives can be equally influential in negotiations,” Alexander said.

“Employers are embracing more creative and flexible options to meet candidate expectations, particularly when hiring pressures are high and salary budgets are tight.”

ANZ’s latest Business Outlook survey showed business confidence remained extremely high, despite easing back in January from a 30-year high in December.

ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner said the economy “has clearly turned higher”.

“Reported past activity (the best indicator of GDP) is suggesting a solid [fourth-quarter] GDP result could be on the cards, with a broad-based lift, and the strength has been largely maintained into January,” she said.

A survey last year of 1000 Kiwis by recruitment platform GoGetta found 25% would leave their job for a pay increase of 6-10%, while 6% would leave for a pay bump of 1-5%.

A further 31% of respondents said they would leave their job for a pay increase of 11-20%.

Only 6% said they wouldn’t quit their job even if they were offered higher pay at another company.