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Home / Business

A robot stole my job: Preparing for the new age of automation

Ted Zorn
NZ Herald·
29 Nov, 2015 03:00 PM5 mins to read

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The latest sports or financial news you read in this paper could have been written by a computer without you even noticing - one of the signs that we are in the midst of a revolution potentially more transformative than the industrial revolution.

That revolution moved humankind from manual to machine labour, and brought dramatic social changes and standards of living. The current revolution, driven by rapid advances in information and communication technologies and biotechnologies, will similarly bring massive changes in how we live and work. While the benefits are potentially huge, so are the dangers. Machines churning out news stories, along with driverless cars, 3D-printed human hearts and memory-recording MRI scans are just the beginning.

The speed of innovation, particularly in chip processing and memory capacity, means a near exponential rate of development is ahead of us. Artificial intelligence (AI) expert Neil Jacobstein predicts that AI will overtake human intelligence in the mid-2020s.

Experts nervously debate what this technological revolution will mean for the future. There is no question there will be heavy disruption to employment patterns as ever-increasing numbers of jobs face automation. Jobs that are routine and repetitive are of course already being replaced. Checkout clerks, tax preparers, bank tellers and telephone operators are quickly disappearing. Many other service and retail jobs could soon go the same way.

However, jobs that require complex pattern recognition and non-routine cognitive tasks are not immune from automation. Ten years ago driverless cars were an impossible dream because of computers' inability to recognise and respond to rapid changes in traffic and road conditions. Today Google's independent cars are already proving more reliable than human drivers.

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The impacts on the logistics and transport industry of this technology could be huge, affecting taxi drivers, couriers and pilots, among others. Similarly, 'big data' already enables computers to carry out some activities faster and better than a human. They can already identify fraud faster than an accountant or diagnose illness better than a doctor. One study predicts that 47 per cent of jobs could become automated in the next 20 years.

New Zealand will not be exempt from automation. Two of our most important industries - agriculture and tourism - will undergo significant change in the coming decades. Agriculture and horticulture will increasingly see agricultural robots (agbots) automating processes such as harvesting, fruit picking, ploughing, weeding, planting and irrigation, particularly on commercial farms. Hundreds of agbots equipped with microscopic sensors could coordinate and work the land with minimal human intervention within the next 10 years.

The dairying industry will also see changes in the pipeline with robotic systems that automate the entire milking process. Drones are already monitoring farm conditions as they are quickly able to reach hard-to-access areas faster than a farmer ever could.

While the possibility of automation might signal warning bells for many industries, agriculture may be an exception. A shortage of agricultural workers is foreseen, and agbots could provide much-needed labour. A recent report launched by Primary Industries Minister Nathan Guy highlights the need for 50,000 more workers in agriculture by 2025. Agbots could fill this gap, working longer and more quickly and without human injuries.

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The development of automation in agriculture also creates opportunities for New Zealand. A recent report commissioned by Trade and Enterprise estimates New Zealand's agri-technology exports are currently worth $1.2 billion a year and there is great potential for this to increase. The report also showed New Zealand is emerging as a leader in providing agricultural technology solutions - a strength we should build upon.

Tourism, New Zealand's second largest export earner, is also facing technological innovation - the airline industry being a frontrunner. Air travel, from reservations to check-in, security and baggage handling is increasingly automated. It is already the norm to check-in online before arriving at the airport, use an app instead of a ticket, and to label and deposit your bags yourself.

The hotel industry is also undergoing change. In July the world's first "robot hotel" - the five-star Henn-na Hotel in Japan - opened its doors. Robots greet and check in guests, carry their luggage and clean their rooms. Facial recognition software replaces room keys and guest requests are managed through tablets. There are other examples: a hotel chain in California last year launched robot butlers ("botlers") to welcome and assist guests during their stay. There are also developments in the pipeline for smart technologies that enable guests to check in using just their fingerprint, or open their hotel rooms using a smartphone as a key. Robot bartenders and robot customer service representatives are already a reality.

The trickle towards the automation of jobs may be relatively slow for the moment, but the flood may not be far off. With this in mind, which occupations will be the most resistant to automation? High-skill jobs requiring creativity, social intelligence and decision-making are least at risk, at least in the short to medium-term. So managers and social workers, for example, repeatedly show up in the "safe" category. But some low-skill jobs - home-care and cleaning, for example - will also be largely unaffected in the near future.

As a business school dean, I think a lot about how we prepare our students for the future. We must ensure students are tech-savvy and can work effectively with new digital tools. A willingness to use technology to complement and enhance our effectiveness is critical. We must ensure graduates are also equipped to continuously learn, innovate and adapt.

Policymakers must also prepare for a future that could see at least temporary mass unemployment, both by preparing to retrain large numbers and preparing for the possibility that technology will finally lead to what futurists have been forecasting for decades - an economy that simply requires far fewer workers. Managed well, this could mean enriched lives of more leisure and fulfilment. Managed poorly and it could mean massive disruption and social conflict.

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