The smartest kids in the room have crunched the data, analysing 40000 participants from 4000 races, and they reckon they have found some value in the Cup.
Macquarie Bank's quantitative whiz kids took a break from their hunt for mispriced investment opportunities to run the rule over the Melbourne Cup field via their 'Macquarie Quant Halpha Model'.
While conceding that factors such as track record, weight carried and barrier draw have a 'material impact' on a horse's chance of winning the race they note that 'the effects also appear to be far smaller than punters believe, resulting in significant mispricing within the betting market.'
Despite this hunt for value the nerds tipped a pretty conventional top three:
"For punters who are out for gold and glory, we use the unbiased odds calculated by our Halpha model to pick horses with the highest likelihood of winning. Our top three are Hartnell (9.6%), Jameka (8.9%) and Big Orange (6.6%)," the team told clients.
And if you are looking for value to put around those tips in a multiple they think they found some:
"However, for value investors out for a bargain, the most undervalued horses are Assign, Curren Mirotic and Almoonqith. We think these horses are more likely to win than their odds suggest."
The Halpha model predicted finishing order is:
3 Big Orange
5 Bondi Beach
7 Wicklow Brave
8 Who Shot Thebarman
9 Heartbreak City
12 Grey Lion
15 Curren Mirotic
16 Grand Marshal
17 Excess Knowledge
18 Our Ivanhowe
19 Secret Number
20 Gallante Blake
21 Rose of Virginia
22 Beautiful Romance
23 Sir John Hawkwood