ASB has released its 2025 first quarter Regional Economic Scoreboard, showing Canterbury in the lead and Gisborne at the bottom. Photo / ASB
“South Island regions are benefiting from strong commodity tailwinds and resilient export demand, especially across dairy, meat, forestry and horticulture.”
The Ministry for Primary Industries’ June Situation and Outlook for Primary Industries report forecast food and fibre export revenue to reach $59.9 billion for the year ending June 2025 — a 12% increase on the previous year.
“We’re seeing the impact of that performance filter through to local economies, particularly in regions like the West Coast, which has posted its best result in four years, and Canterbury, where rural strength is boosting confidence across the board,” Tuffley said.
The West Coast “made a remarkable leap” in the scoreboard, rising from its sixth-place spot in last year’s fourth quarter.
Tuffley said this was due to the region’s “robust construction activity and a rebound in retail sales”.
Marlborough, too, saw a significant rise through the ranks, going from 10th last year to fourth this year over the same period.
Otago, however, slipped from its top spot in the fourth quarter last year - which it also held in the third quarter - to third place. Tuffley noted this was despite Queenstown’s ongoing strength in tourism.
“Meanwhile, places like Wellington continue to face a range of challenges including employment, construction and consumer confidence,” Tuffley said.
ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley.
Wellington’s position as second-to-last makes for an unchanged position over the past three quarters. Auckland’s position was a small nudge above where it was last quarter.
“It’s clear that the rural and urban economies seem to be moving at different speeds across the country,” Tuffley said.
“It’s regional New Zealand, particularly the food and fibre sector, that’s doing the hard work of pulling the national economy forward.”
Tuffley said ASB was seeing “early signs of recovery emerging across the country” in the near future.
The Reserve Bank’s cuts to the Official Cash Rate would aid that, he said, “however, global uncertainty continues to cast a shadow over the pace and strength of that recovery”.
Raphael Franks is an Auckland-based reporter who covers business, breaking news and local stories from Tāmaki Makaurau. He joined the Herald as a Te Rito cadet in 2022.
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