More rain is expected to hit flood-fatigued residents at the top of both islands next week.
A MetService forecaster said the country was in for a dramatic change with rain and wind set to return this weekend, and the most severe weather reserved for Tuesday.
Tasman Mayor Tim King said once more his region was preparing for the worst with river levels still at elevated levels typically seen at the end of winter.
He said the area had enjoyed seven days of clear skies and frosts since the last deluge, but that was unlikely to be enough to prevent devastating impacts if more heavy rain fell.
MetService meteorologist Devlin Lynden said more severe weather is possible starting Monday evening for hard-hit areas in Northland, the Tasman District and the West Coast.
He said this would be a big change from the cold and clear starts this week, with many areas waking up to snow, frost and sub-zero temperatures.
😎☀️☀️Well, it doesn't get much clearer than that!! ☀️☀️😎
— MetService (@MetService) July 23, 2025
This Night-Microphysics Satellite image shows the near complete lack of cloud over the country at 7am this morning. This type of imagery is like a 🥸 meteorologist's night vision for the clouds, one problem... I'm still… pic.twitter.com/aobXvnKPR5
“This spell of settled weather is coming to a close as conditions gradually turn over the weekend with warmer temperatures, rain and wind firmly returning to the forecast from early next week.
“After what has been a notably cold and settled week of July, the shift to a more active pattern may feel like a dramatic change for many.”
He said people could “enjoy the clear days for a little bit longer” but by tomorrow rain would begin to move into Fiordland.
“That ridge is on the move and we’ll start to feel the effects as early as Saturday in the south.”
“Our focus is on the next system, which will bring rain and wind back into the picture for many areas by late Sunday and into Monday, with more severe weather possible on Tuesday.”
He said by Sunday, areas such as Northland and the West Coast can expect scattered showers.
“Next week looks more unsettled overall, with warmer temperatures brought in by strengthening northerly winds.
“Showers spread further east on Monday and by Tuesday, there is the risk of heavier rain developing for the north of the North Island, the Tasman District and the West Coast, areas that have already seen plenty of severe weather this winter.”
King said the forecast was “not looking great” and he hoped it would improve over the weekend.
“It’s been good to have a break from it, but it hasn’t been enough.”
He said council workers and landowners have been working frantically to clean up the region.
Flooding over recent weeks left homes in Nelson, Tasman and Marlborough uninhabitable, roads damaged and properties inundated with flood waters in what was described by local authorities as a “one-in-100-year event”.
Slips, surface flooding and significant damage from the floods have rendered many roads across the upper South Island unsafe.
Meanwhile, many Kiwis have woken to cold and frosty temperatures this week, with the New Zealand Transport Agency forced to issue many black ice warnings.
Another frosty start ❄
— MetService (@MetService) July 22, 2025
☀ Today will be a sunny day for most, but cloud with sit over eastern parts of the North Island, with the chance of a shower or two 🌥
For your local forecast: https://t.co/Yjbq0jgaoz pic.twitter.com/HgRgxkw5Sm
Lynden said places such as Dunedin Airport, Timaru and Wānaka dipped to their lowest temperatures of the year this morning with -6.7C, -4.7C and -5.1C respectively.
Even Aucklanders got some frosts in sheltered areas, with temperatures dropping below 4C every day so far this week.