Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern. Photo / Jed Bradley
OPINION:
The election. I reckon it's six of one and a baker's dozen of the other.
1. Jacinda Ardern. Half the country fell in love with her in 2020, as a result of Winston Peters falling out of love with Bill English in 2017. Regardless of your political bent, Ardern did a good job steering us through the first stage of the Covid crisis. And no one does empathy better than the PM.
2. The economy. The optimists reckon we're past the peak of the inflation hump and we're going to avoid recession. Besides, can you have a recession when you've got record low unemployment? Sleepy Joe Biden, US President, says no, so that's got to fill you with confidence.
3. The Nats. Just when you think it's safe to go back into the water, after Simon Bridges, Todd Muller and Judith Collins; along comes Sam Uffindell.
4. Ian Foster. He rose from the dead. If Fozzie can defy the odds, Ardern can defy the polls. The 2023 Rugby World Cup Final will be played on Sunday, October 29 (NZ time). Traditionally, the election wouldn't be a mile away from that date. But put the house on Ardern calling the election before the quarter-final weekend, when the All Blacks face the real possibility of an exit from the World Cup at the hands of Ireland or South Africa. A losing RWC campaign is not good for the nation's psyche or mood.
5. The Greens. Ignore the self-destruct faction of a party that's very good at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. The loopy left mightn't want James Shaw but a lot of Middle NZ sees him as a voice of reason. The Greens have a core constituency support base of 7 to 8 per cent that won't desert a sinking carbon-zero ship. Write them off at your peril.
6. Grant Robertson, Chris Hipkins and Megan Woods. There are some very capable people on the Government benches even though they're seemingly out-numbered by those who couldn't run a bath.
1. Jacinda Ardern. More than half the country doesn't love her anymore. Even Peters, the man responsible for her ascension to the throne, is now saying she told him porky pies when he was Deputy PM. The pandemic is no longer her crowning glory. For someone so popular, she's now the most polarising PM since Sir Robert Muldoon.
2. The economy. "It's all about the economy, stupid". So said former US President Bill Clinton. Chances are we will be in recession in quarters three and four of 2023. People vote with their wallets.
3. The Nats. While National party leader Christopher Luxon has yet to convince us he's John Key 2.0, he's easily the closest thing the Nats have got to St. John.
4. Ian Foster. Fozzie's supposedly safe until October 2023. But is he? Is the tide going out for the holders of the two most important jobs in the country?
5. The Greens.
6. Nicola Willis, Chris Bishop, Erica Stanford and ...? Therein lies the problem for such a small caucus. While recent attempts to introduce new blood have hardly been a success, the 2023 election (win, lose, or hung Parliament) will definitely replenish the talent pool.
7. The primary sector and rural economy. In one of the great conjuring acts in political history, Labour won the party vote in all but the Epsom electorate in 2020. The provinces will all swing right in 2023. It is one thing to be transformational, as the Lange government was with Rogernomics. But it's another to be downright incompetent (winter grazing) and downright unpopular on several agricultural policy fronts. Rural NZ will not dip its toe in the water again.
8. Three Waters. Or is it now Two Waters? Or is it just time to flush the dunny on this most unpopular of policies? It has the wastewater stench of "Big Bullying Brother" knows best.
9. Co-governance. This even trumps Three Waters in the unpopularity stakes.
10. Winston Peters and David Seymour. Both will scratch the co-governance itch for all it's worth. Winnie's old enemies from the Nats have now left the building. If he can pull 5 per cent out of the hat, could he work with Luxon, Willis and Bishop? Seymour definitely will. If Act convincingly outpolls the Greens, it's game over for Labour. And Dr Gaurav Sharma's not helping the cause either!
11. Dr. Sharma Drama Karma?
12. Wokeness.
13. Lethargy. Governments lose elections. Oppositions don't win them. People tire of governments and leaders. It took the great Helen Clark three terms to reach her "shower head" moment of madness. Ardern's done it in two terms with Three Waters, co-governance, wasteful spending and the inarguable burden of having to steer a nation through an unprecedented global pandemic.