Rabobank remains cautious over positive GDT result

While the latest global dairy trade auction is a "pleasing result", Rabobank's Dairy Analyst Michael Harvey remains cautious that it is still a "short-term stabilisation in pricing".

The GDT price index rose 1 per cent compared to the previous auction on May 6.

Whole milk powder prices, which have the greatest bearing on Fonterra's farmgate milk price, were down 0.5 per cent to US$2,677/tonne.

Skim milk powder - the second biggest "reference" product for Fonterra, was up 6.7 per cent to an average price US$2,549/tonne.

In the other main commodity groups, anhydrous milk fat (AMF) rose 2.7 per cent to US$4,079/tonne and butter softened 1.9 per cent to US$3,803/tonne.

As this was the last Global Dairy Trade auction of the season, the numbers would "lock in" Fonterra's current season forecast of between $7 to $7.60, Harvey told The Country's Jamie Mackay.

"Pricing of commodities in this part of the world has been shielded from the full impact of what we're seeing around the world, largely because the seasons are winding down, there's a bit of flex in what you do with the milk volumes".

"So absolutely it shores up the milk price for the current season, but then obviously the [next] question on everyone's mind is - what lies ahead for the 20/21 season?"

Also in today's interview: Harvey talked about Rabobank's milk price forecast.